12.4 Bankruptcy and restructuring valuations

Bankruptcy and restructuring valuations are critical in assessing a company's worth during financial distress. These valuations determine asset and liability values, influencing decisions about liquidation or reorganization. Understanding different bankruptcy types and processes is key to accurate valuations.

Valuation approaches in bankruptcy differ from traditional methods, considering liquidation value, going concern value, and reorganization value. Analysts must adjust for financial distress, using methods like discounted cash flow analysis and comparable company analysis with appropriate modifications.

Types of bankruptcy

• Bankruptcy valuations play a crucial role in Business Valuation, determining the worth of a company's assets and liabilities during financial distress
• Understanding different types of bankruptcy helps valuators assess the potential outcomes and recovery rates for stakeholders

Chapter 7 vs Chapter 11

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• Chapter 7 involves liquidation of assets and distribution to creditors
• Chapter 11 focuses on reorganization, allowing the company to continue operations
• Chapter 7 typically results in lower recovery rates for creditors
• Chapter 11 aims to maximize value through continued business operations
• Valuation approaches differ between Chapter 7 (liquidation value) and Chapter 11 (going concern value)

Voluntary vs involuntary bankruptcy

• Voluntary bankruptcy initiated by the debtor company to seek protection from creditors
• Involuntary bankruptcy filed by creditors when a company fails to pay its debts
• Voluntary filings often lead to more cooperative restructuring processes
• Involuntary filings may result in more contentious valuation disputes
• Timing of filing impacts the company's value and potential for successful reorganization

Bankruptcy process overview

• Bankruptcy process significantly influences the valuation of a distressed company's assets and liabilities
• Understanding the process helps valuators identify key milestones and potential value inflection points

Filing and automatic stay

• Bankruptcy petition filed with the court initiates the process
• Automatic stay immediately halts all collection efforts and lawsuits against the debtor
• Provides breathing room for the company to assess its financial situation
• Impacts valuation by potentially preserving going concern value
• Allows time for more comprehensive valuation analysis and stakeholder negotiations

Creditor claims and priority

• Creditors submit claims for amounts owed by the bankrupt company
• Claims classified into secured, priority unsecured, and general unsecured categories
• Absolute priority rule determines the order of payment (secured creditors paid first)
• Valuation crucial in determining the potential recovery for each creditor class
• Inter-creditor disputes may arise over valuation methodologies and assumptions

Plan of reorganization

• Proposed strategy for restructuring the company's debts and operations
• Includes financial projections and proposed treatment of various creditor classes
• Valuation plays a central role in determining the feasibility of the plan
• Creditors vote on the plan, with court approval required for confirmation
• Confirmed plan becomes the blueprint for the company's post-bankruptcy operations

Valuation approaches in bankruptcy

• Valuation approaches in bankruptcy differ from traditional going concern valuations
• Understanding these approaches helps determine the most appropriate method for a given situation

Liquidation value

• Estimates the value of a company's assets if sold individually in a distressed situation
• Typically results in lower values compared to going concern scenarios
• Considers factors such as forced sale discounts and liquidation costs
• Often used as a "floor" value in Chapter 7 cases or as a comparison in Chapter 11
• Requires detailed asset-by-asset analysis and market condition assessments

Going concern value

• Assumes the company will continue operating as a viable business
• Incorporates future earnings potential and growth prospects
• Generally higher than liquidation value, supporting reorganization efforts
• Utilizes traditional valuation methods (DCF, market multiples) with adjustments for distress
• Considers the impact of potential operational improvements and debt restructuring

Reorganization value

• Estimates the value of the company post-emergence from bankruptcy
• Incorporates the effects of the proposed restructuring plan
• Considers both tangible and intangible assets, including goodwill
• Often used to determine the feasibility of a reorganization plan
• Impacts the allocation of new equity and debt instruments to creditors

Distressed company valuation methods

• Valuation methods for distressed companies require adjustments to account for financial distress
• Understanding these methods helps analysts accurately assess the value of troubled firms

Discounted cash flow analysis

• Adjusts projected cash flows to reflect the company's distressed situation
• Incorporates higher discount rates to account for increased risk
• Considers multiple scenarios (base case, upside, downside) to capture uncertainty
• Includes potential impacts of operational restructuring and debt reduction
• Sensitivity analysis crucial due to heightened uncertainty in projections

Comparable company analysis

• Identifies publicly traded companies with similar financial distress or recent restructuring
• Adjusts multiples to account for differences in financial health and growth prospects
• Considers the impact of leverage and operational inefficiencies on valuation multiples
• May use forward-looking multiples based on post-restructuring projections
• Often results in lower multiples compared to healthy industry peers

Precedent transactions

• Analyzes recent M&A transactions involving distressed or bankrupt companies
• Focuses on transactions within the same industry or with similar financial characteristics
• Adjusts multiples for differences in market conditions and company-specific factors
• Considers the impact of distressed sales on transaction multiples
• May provide insights into potential strategic buyer interest and valuation premiums

Restructuring valuation considerations

• Restructuring valuations require special considerations to account for the company's financial distress
• Understanding these factors helps analysts provide more accurate and relevant valuations

Debt capacity analysis

• Assesses the company's ability to support various levels of debt post-restructuring
• Considers industry norms, peer comparisons, and company-specific factors
• Incorporates projected cash flows and potential asset sales
• Impacts the proposed capital structure in the reorganization plan
• Influences the valuation of new debt instruments issued during restructuring

Capital structure optimization

• Determines the optimal mix of debt and equity for the reorganized company
• Balances the benefits of leverage with financial flexibility and risk management
• Considers tax implications, cost of capital, and growth opportunities
• Impacts the overall enterprise value and allocation to various stakeholders
• May involve complex negotiations between creditors and equity holders

Fresh start accounting

• Requires revaluation of assets and liabilities upon emergence from bankruptcy
• Adjusts book values to reflect fair market values as of the emergence date
• Creates a new basis for financial reporting post-bankruptcy
• Impacts future depreciation, amortization, and potential goodwill impairment
• Requires careful analysis of intangible assets and contingent liabilities

Valuation of distressed debt

• Distressed debt valuation is crucial for investors and creditors in bankruptcy situations
• Understanding these valuation techniques helps assess potential recovery rates and investment opportunities

Fulcrum security analysis

• Identifies the class of securities likely to receive the majority of post-reorganization equity
• Considers the enterprise value and the claims of various creditor classes
• Helps investors target the most influential securities in the capital structure
• Impacts trading strategies and negotiation positions in restructuring discussions
• Requires careful analysis of the absolute priority rule and potential deviations

Recovery rate estimation

• Forecasts the percentage of claim value creditors can expect to recover
• Considers factors such as collateral value, priority of claims, and enterprise value
• Utilizes historical recovery rates for similar situations as benchmarks
• Impacts pricing of distressed debt in secondary markets
• Requires scenario analysis to account for various potential outcomes

Distressed debt trading

• Analyzes pricing of distressed debt securities in secondary markets
• Considers factors such as liquidity, information asymmetry, and investor sentiment
• Impacts valuation by providing market-based indicators of recovery expectations
• Requires understanding of complex financial instruments (credit default swaps)
• Influences the behavior of creditors and their willingness to negotiate in restructuring

Bankruptcy emergence valuation

• Valuation at bankruptcy emergence is critical for determining the allocation of new securities
• Understanding this process helps analysts assess the potential value creation post-bankruptcy

Enterprise value determination

• Estimates the total value of the reorganized company upon emergence
• Considers projected financial performance, industry trends, and market conditions
• Utilizes multiple valuation methods (DCF, comparable companies, precedent transactions)
• Impacts the allocation of new securities to various creditor classes
• Requires careful consideration of fresh start accounting adjustments

Equity value allocation

• Determines the distribution of new equity to creditors and potentially existing shareholders
• Considers the absolute priority rule and any negotiated deviations
• Impacts the ownership structure and control of the reorganized company
• Requires analysis of complex securities (warrants, convertible debt) issued in restructuring
• Influences post-emergence trading dynamics and potential for future value creation

Post-emergence financial projections

• Develops detailed forecasts of the company's performance after bankruptcy
• Considers operational improvements, cost reductions, and potential market share gains
• Impacts the valuation of new securities issued during the restructuring
• Requires careful analysis of industry trends and competitive positioning
• Influences investor expectations and potential for post-emergence value creation

Key stakeholders in bankruptcy

• Understanding the roles and motivations of key stakeholders is crucial in bankruptcy valuations
• Stakeholder dynamics significantly impact the valuation process and outcomes

Debtor-in-possession

• Company management retains control of operations during Chapter 11 proceedings
• Responsible for developing and proposing the reorganization plan
• May have conflicts of interest between creditors and equity holders
• Influences the valuation process through information provision and strategic decisions
• Subject to oversight by the bankruptcy court and creditors' committee

Creditors' committee

• Represents the interests of unsecured creditors in bankruptcy proceedings
• Plays a key role in negotiating the terms of the reorganization plan
• May hire independent financial advisors to conduct valuation analyses
• Influences the valuation process through information requests and plan objections
• Balances interests of various creditor classes (trade creditors, bondholders)

Equity committee

• Represents the interests of shareholders in bankruptcy proceedings
• Formed in cases where there is potential value for equity holders
• May challenge valuation assumptions to argue for higher enterprise values
• Influences the valuation process through information requests and litigation
• Often faces an uphill battle due to the absolute priority rule

Legal and regulatory framework

• Understanding the legal and regulatory environment is crucial for accurate bankruptcy valuations
• These frameworks significantly impact the valuation process and outcomes

Bankruptcy code overview

• Provides the legal structure for bankruptcy proceedings in the United States
• Outlines the rights and responsibilities of debtors, creditors, and other stakeholders
• Impacts valuation through rules on claim priority, plan confirmation, and cram-down provisions
• Influences the timeline and procedures for conducting valuations in bankruptcy
• Requires valuators to understand key concepts (adequate protection, feasibility)

Securities and Exchange Commission role

• Oversees the issuance of new securities in bankruptcy reorganizations
• Reviews disclosure statements and reorganization plans for public companies
• Impacts valuation through requirements for financial reporting and projections
• May provide input on valuation methodologies and assumptions in certain cases
• Ensures protection of public investors' interests in bankruptcy proceedings

Bankruptcy court procedures

• Establishes timelines and deadlines for various stages of the bankruptcy process
• Impacts the valuation process through scheduling of hearings and disclosure requirements
• Adjudicates disputes over valuation methodologies and assumptions
• May appoint independent experts to provide valuation opinions in contested cases
• Requires valuators to understand rules of evidence and expert witness testimony

Valuation challenges in bankruptcy

• Bankruptcy situations present unique challenges for valuators
• Understanding these challenges helps analysts navigate complex valuation scenarios

Information asymmetry

• Limited access to company information for external stakeholders
• Management may have incentives to withhold or manipulate information
• Requires careful analysis of available data and potential biases
• Impacts the reliability and accuracy of valuation assumptions
• May necessitate the use of multiple valuation approaches to cross-check results

Uncertain future prospects

• Difficulty in forecasting future performance due to operational and financial distress
• Requires consideration of multiple scenarios (liquidation, reorganization, sale)
• Impacts the selection and application of appropriate valuation methodologies
• Necessitates careful analysis of industry trends and potential turnaround strategies
• May result in wider valuation ranges compared to healthy companies

Time constraints

• Bankruptcy proceedings often have tight deadlines for valuation analyses
• Requires efficient data gathering and analysis processes
• Impacts the depth and breadth of valuation approaches that can be employed
• May necessitate the use of simplified valuation models or benchmarking techniques
• Requires valuators to balance thoroughness with timeliness in their analyses

Post-bankruptcy performance analysis

• Analyzing post-bankruptcy performance provides valuable insights for future valuations
• Understanding these factors helps assess the effectiveness of restructuring efforts

Emergence tracking

• Monitors the financial and operational performance of companies post-bankruptcy
• Compares actual results to projections made during the restructuring process
• Provides insights into the accuracy of valuation assumptions used in bankruptcy
• Helps identify factors that contribute to successful post-bankruptcy performance
• Informs future valuation approaches for companies emerging from bankruptcy

Success rates of reorganizations

• Analyzes the percentage of companies that successfully emerge and remain viable
• Considers factors such as industry, size, and nature of financial distress
• Provides context for assessing the likelihood of successful reorganization
• Impacts the selection of comparable companies and transactions in valuations
• Helps identify patterns and best practices in successful restructurings

Factors influencing post-bankruptcy success

• Identifies key drivers of successful post-bankruptcy performance
• Considers operational improvements, debt reduction, and management changes
• Analyzes the impact of industry trends and macroeconomic factors
• Provides insights for developing more accurate projections in future valuations
• Helps valuators assess the feasibility and potential outcomes of reorganization plans