🌡️Climatology Unit 11 – Climate Policy and Economics

Key Climate Concepts

• Greenhouse effect traps heat in Earth's atmosphere due to gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)
  • Increased greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities intensify this effect leading to global warming
• Climate sensitivity measures how much global temperatures rise in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2
  • Estimated to be between 1.5°C and 4.5°C based on climate models and paleoclimate data
• Carbon cycle describes the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and biosphere
  • Human activities like fossil fuel combustion and deforestation disrupt this balance by adding more CO2 to the atmosphere
• Tipping points are thresholds beyond which abrupt or irreversible changes occur in the climate system
  • Examples include melting of the Greenland ice sheet or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
• Climate feedback loops can amplify or dampen initial changes in the climate system
  • Positive feedbacks like melting sea ice and release of methane from thawing permafrost accelerate warming
  • Negative feedbacks like increased plant growth absorbing more CO2 can slow warming
• Radiative forcing quantifies the change in Earth's energy balance due to factors like greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land use changes
  • Measured in watts per square meter (W/m2) with positive values indicating warming and negative values indicating cooling
• Climate models simulate the complex interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice to project future climate changes
  • Based on physical laws and equations, they incorporate different emission scenarios and climate sensitivities

Economic Impacts of Climate Change

• Agriculture faces challenges from shifting growing seasons, increased drought and flood risks, and spread of pests and diseases
  • Reduced crop yields and food security risks are expected in many regions, especially in developing countries
• Coastal communities are vulnerable to sea level rise, increased storm surge, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources
  • Costs of adaptation measures like seawalls and relocation of infrastructure will be significant
• Human health is impacted by heat waves, air pollution, spread of infectious diseases, and undernutrition from food insecurity
  • Vulnerable populations like the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing conditions are at higher risk
• Energy demand for cooling is expected to increase while efficiency of power generation may decrease due to higher temperatures
  • Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy can mitigate emissions while meeting growing energy needs
• Ecosystem services like water purification, pollination, and carbon sequestration are disrupted by climate change
  • Loss of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems can have cascading economic impacts across sectors
• Infrastructure like roads, bridges, and coastal properties are at risk from extreme weather events and rising sea levels
  • Upgrading and adapting infrastructure to be more resilient will require significant investments
• Climate change is a threat multiplier exacerbating existing economic inequalities and vulnerabilities
  • Developing countries and marginalized communities often have lower adaptive capacity and face disproportionate impacts

Policy Frameworks and Approaches

• Mitigation policies aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow the rate of climate change
  • Strategies include transitioning to renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and protecting carbon sinks like forests
• Adaptation policies seek to reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to climate impacts
  • Measures include building sea walls, developing drought-resistant crops, and improving early warning systems
• Carbon pricing puts a price on greenhouse gas emissions through carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems
  • Encourages businesses and individuals to reduce their emissions and invest in clean technologies
• Regulatory approaches set standards and limits on emissions from specific sources like power plants and vehicles
  • Can be technology-based (requiring use of certain technologies) or performance-based (setting emission limits)
• Subsidies and incentives can encourage adoption of clean technologies and practices
  • Examples include tax credits for renewable energy, rebates for electric vehicles, and payments for ecosystem services
• Research and development funding supports innovation in areas like battery storage, carbon capture, and climate-resilient agriculture
  • Public-private partnerships can accelerate commercialization and deployment of new technologies
• Education and outreach programs raise awareness about climate change and empower individuals and communities to take action
  • Initiatives can target different audiences like schools, businesses, and policymakers

International Climate Agreements

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established in 1992 to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations
  • Provides a framework for international cooperation and negotiation on climate change
• Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 set legally binding emission reduction targets for developed countries
  • Criticized for lack of participation by major emitters like the United States and China
• Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 with goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels
  • Requires all countries to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining their emission reduction plans
  • Includes mechanisms for climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building for developing countries
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant to climate change
  • Provides policymakers with regular reports and special studies to inform decision-making
• Green Climate Fund (GCF) established to support low-emission and climate-resilient development in developing countries
  • Aims to mobilize $100 billion per year in climate finance by 2020
• Climate justice and equity considerations are increasingly recognized in international agreements
  • Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities acknowledges different capabilities and historical contributions to emissions
• Challenges remain in implementing and enforcing international agreements
  • Issues include ensuring compliance, raising ambition over time, and addressing potential economic impacts on certain sectors and regions

Market-Based Solutions

• Carbon markets allow trading of emission allowances or credits to meet emission reduction targets
  • Cap-and-trade systems set a declining limit on total emissions and allocate or auction allowances to emitters
  • Baseline-and-credit systems reward emission reductions below a business-as-usual baseline with tradable credits
• Carbon offsets allow individuals or organizations to compensate for their emissions by supporting emission reduction projects elsewhere
  • Examples include renewable energy, energy efficiency, and reforestation projects in developing countries
• Green bonds are financial instruments that raise funds for environmentally friendly projects and initiatives
  • Proceeds can be used for renewable energy, sustainable transportation, and climate adaptation measures
• Sustainable investing strategies incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into investment decisions
  • Approaches include negative screening (excluding certain sectors), positive screening (selecting best-in-class companies), and impact investing (targeting specific environmental or social outcomes)
• Public-private partnerships can leverage private sector expertise and resources for climate mitigation and adaptation projects
  • Examples include development of low-carbon infrastructure, climate risk insurance, and technology transfer initiatives
• Voluntary carbon markets enable companies and individuals to purchase carbon offsets to meet voluntary emission reduction goals
  • Criticized for lack of regulation and potential for double counting or overestimation of emission reductions
• Natural capital accounting frameworks seek to incorporate the value of ecosystem services into economic decision-making
  • Approaches include valuation of carbon sequestration, water regulation, and biodiversity conservation benefits

Challenges in Implementation

• Political barriers include opposition from fossil fuel industries, concerns about economic competitiveness, and short-term thinking
  • Building coalitions and communicating co-benefits of climate action for health, jobs, and security can help overcome these barriers
• Economic challenges include upfront costs of transitioning to low-carbon technologies and potential impacts on energy-intensive industries
  • Policies can be designed to provide targeted support for affected workers and communities and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship
• Social and behavioral barriers include lack of awareness, inertia, and perceived inconvenience of changing practices
  • Education campaigns, social norms, and choice architecture (making low-carbon options the default) can help shift behaviors
• Technological barriers include need for further innovation and scaling up of clean technologies like energy storage and carbon capture
  • Research and development funding, demonstration projects, and market incentives can accelerate technological progress
• Institutional and governance challenges include fragmentation of decision-making across levels and sectors and need for long-term planning
  • Integrated planning, stakeholder engagement, and capacity building can improve coordination and implementation
• Equity and distributional impacts of policies on different income groups, regions, and generations need to be carefully considered
  • Progressive revenue recycling, targeted assistance, and procedural justice in decision-making can help address these concerns
• Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of emissions and policy impacts is crucial for assessing progress and informing adjustments
  • Standardized methodologies, transparent reporting, and independent review can enhance credibility and comparability of MRV systems

Case Studies and Real-World Examples

• Germany's Energiewende (energy transition) aims to phase out nuclear power and transition to renewable energy
  • Policies include feed-in tariffs for renewable energy, energy efficiency standards, and carbon pricing
  • Challenges include managing intermittency of renewables and ensuring energy affordability and competitiveness
• California's cap-and-trade program covers 85% of the state's greenhouse gas emissions
  • Proceeds from allowance auctions are invested in clean energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable communities
  • Linked with programs in Quebec and Ontario to create a larger carbon market
• Costa Rica aims to become carbon neutral by 2050 through a combination of renewable energy, electric mobility, and reforestation
  • Over 98% of electricity already comes from renewable sources like hydropower, wind, and geothermal
  • Payments for ecosystem services program has helped reduce deforestation and support sustainable land management
• Shenzhen's emission trading system was the first to be implemented in China and covers over 600 companies
  • Builds on earlier pilot programs and provides lessons for the development of a national carbon market
  • Challenges include ensuring data quality, market liquidity, and policy coordination with other instruments
• Netherlands' Delta Programme is a national strategy for adapting to sea level rise and increased flood risks
  • Combines hard infrastructure like dikes and storm surge barriers with nature-based solutions like coastal wetlands and river restoration
  • Emphasizes flexible and adaptive planning to deal with uncertainties and changing risks over time
• Maldives' Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program (SREP) aims to increase energy access and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels
  • Targets installation of 30 MW of solar PV and 20 MW of wind energy by 2023
  • Includes capacity building for local technicians and development of financing mechanisms for renewable energy projects

Future Trends and Innovations

• Declining costs and improving performance of clean technologies like solar PV, wind turbines, and electric vehicles
  • Further innovation in areas like energy storage, smart grids, and demand response can enable higher penetration of renewables
• Growing recognition of nature-based solutions like reforestation, wetland restoration, and regenerative agriculture for climate mitigation and adaptation
  • Provide co-benefits for biodiversity, water management, and sustainable livelihoods
• Increasing attention to climate justice and equity in policy design and implementation
  • Strategies include community-driven planning, participatory budgeting, and targeted investments in disadvantaged communities
• Expansion of climate risk disclosure and incorporation of climate factors into financial decision-making
  • Initiatives like the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) provide frameworks for assessing and reporting climate risks and opportunities
• Exploration of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies like direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and enhanced weathering
  • Seen as potentially necessary for achieving net-zero emissions and limiting temperature rise, but face challenges of scale, cost, and sustainability
• Development of circular economy approaches that minimize waste and maximize resource efficiency
  • Strategies include product life extension, remanufacturing, and recycling of materials like plastics, metals, and electronics
• Growing role of cities, businesses, and civil society in driving climate action and innovation
  • Networks like C40 Cities, We Mean Business coalition, and Climate Action Network facilitate knowledge sharing and collective action
• Integration of climate considerations into COVID-19 recovery plans and building back better
  • Opportunities to align economic stimulus with climate goals through investments in clean energy, sustainable infrastructure, and green jobs