🤔Cognitive Psychology Unit 11 – Reasoning and Decision Making

Key Concepts and Theories

• Reasoning involves using logic and evidence to draw conclusions or make decisions
• Deductive reasoning starts with a general principle and applies it to specific cases (All dogs are mammals. Spot is a dog. Therefore, Spot is a mammal)
• Inductive reasoning begins with specific observations and generalizes to broader principles (Every swan I've seen is white. Therefore, all swans are probably white)
• Abductive reasoning seeks the most likely explanation for a set of observations (The grass is wet. It probably rained last night)
• Decision-making is the process of choosing between alternatives based on goals, values, and constraints
• Normative models prescribe how decisions should be made under ideal conditions
• Descriptive models aim to capture how people actually make decisions in real-world settings
• Bounded rationality recognizes that human decision-making is limited by cognitive constraints (time, information, computational power)

Types of Reasoning

• Analogical reasoning involves drawing parallels between two situations based on their shared relations or properties
  • Helps in problem-solving by applying solutions from one domain to another (using a chess strategy in business negotiations)
• Causal reasoning seeks to identify cause-and-effect relationships between events or variables
  • Relies on cues such as temporal precedence, covariation, and mechanistic plausibility
• Counterfactual reasoning involves imagining alternative outcomes or possibilities that did not actually occur (What if I had studied harder for the exam?)
• Moral reasoning applies ethical principles to determine the rightness or wrongness of actions
  • Kohlberg's stages of moral development describe shifts from self-interest to universal ethical principles
• Probabilistic reasoning deals with uncertainty and uses probability theory to quantify likelihood
• Syllogistic reasoning evaluates the logical validity of arguments based on their structure (All A are B. All B are C. Therefore, all A are C)

Decision-Making Models

• Expected utility theory assumes that people choose options with the highest probability-weighted average payoff
  • Utilities are subjective values placed on outcomes based on individual preferences
• Prospect theory accounts for deviations from expected utility due to psychological biases
  • People are risk-averse for gains but risk-seeking for losses relative to a reference point
• Satisficing suggests that people often settle for "good enough" options rather than optimizing
• Recognition-primed decision-making relies on pattern matching and intuition based on prior experience
  • Commonly used by experts in time-pressured situations (firefighters, chess masters)
• Naturalistic decision-making studies how people make decisions in real-world contexts with ill-defined goals, uncertainty, and high stakes
• Multi-attribute utility theory evaluates options based on multiple criteria or dimensions
  • Each attribute is weighted by its relative importance to the decision-maker
• Heuristic models propose that people use mental shortcuts or rules of thumb to simplify complex decisions
  • While efficient, heuristics can lead to systematic biases or errors in judgment

Cognitive Biases and Heuristics

• Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out or interpret information in ways that confirm one's preexisting beliefs
• Anchoring and adjustment involve relying too heavily on an initial piece of information (the anchor) when making estimates
• Availability heuristic judges the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind
  • Can lead to overestimating the probability of vivid or recent events (plane crashes, shark attacks)
• Representativeness heuristic assumes that things belonging to a category share essential features
  • Ignores base rates and can lead to conjunction fallacy (Linda problem)
• Hindsight bias is the tendency to see past events as more predictable than they actually were
• Framing effects occur when equivalent descriptions of a decision problem lead to different preferences
  • Presenting outcomes as gains or losses relative to a reference point alters risk preferences
• Sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to continue investing in a losing proposition because of past investments
• Planning fallacy underestimates the time needed to complete future tasks

Problem-Solving Strategies

• Means-ends analysis involves setting subgoals to reduce the difference between the current state and the desired goal state
• Working backward starts with the desired outcome and works back to identify the steps needed to reach it
• Analogical problem solving maps the solution from a similar problem onto the current situation
  • Effective analogies capture the underlying structure or principles rather than surface features
• Brainstorming generates a large quantity of potential solutions without evaluating them
  • Suspending judgment can facilitate creative thinking and novel ideas
• Lateral thinking approaches problems indirectly and creatively by challenging assumptions
  • Provocation techniques introduce random or absurd elements to stimulate new perspectives
• Divide and conquer breaks down complex problems into smaller, more manageable subproblems
• Collaborative problem solving leverages the diverse knowledge and skills of multiple individuals
  • Effective teams establish clear roles, communicate openly, and manage conflict constructively

Factors Influencing Decision Making

• Time pressure can lead to more heuristic processing and reliance on intuitive rather than analytical thinking
• Emotions, both positive and negative, shape decision-making through effects on attention, memory, and risk perceptions
  • Anxiety promotes risk-averse choices while anger promotes risk-seeking
• Social influences, such as conformity and obedience, can override individual judgment
  • Groupthink occurs when desire for harmony suppresses dissent and critical thinking
• Cultural values and norms provide a framework for interpreting and responding to decision problems
  • Individualistic vs. collectivistic orientations affect whether choices optimize for the self or the group
• Expertise enables more efficient and accurate decision-making within a domain
  • Novices rely more on general heuristics while experts use specialized knowledge
• Age-related changes in cognitive function and emotional regulation can affect decision-making
  • Older adults show declines in fluid intelligence but gains in crystallized intelligence
• Individual differences in cognitive style, personality, and motivation influence decision-making
  • Need for cognition reflects enjoyment of effortful thinking while need for closure reflects aversion to ambiguity

Real-World Applications

• Medical decision-making involves high stakes, uncertainty, and time pressure
  • Heuristics like availability can lead to misdiagnosis or overtreatment
• Legal decision-making by judges and juries is subject to biases like hindsight and anchoring
  • Instructions to consider alternative explanations can debias judgments
• Political decision-making often relies on heuristic cues like party affiliation or candidate appearance
  • Framing effects can manipulate public opinion on issues like taxes or welfare
• Organizational decision-making benefits from diverse perspectives and devil's advocacy
  • Structured analytic techniques like scenario planning can reduce groupthink
• Consumer decision-making is influenced by framing, anchoring, and social proof
  • Choice architecture and nudges can steer people toward desired outcomes
• Financial decision-making is prone to biases like overconfidence and loss aversion
  • Debiasing techniques include considering opportunity costs and diversification
• Environmental decision-making requires balancing multiple stakeholders and long time horizons
  • Discounting of future outcomes leads to unsustainable resource use

Current Research and Future Directions

• Dual-process theories distinguish between fast, intuitive thinking (System 1) and slow, deliberative thinking (System 2)
  • Interventions aim to engage System 2 to override biases and improve decision quality
• Quantum cognition models use quantum probability theory to capture violations of classical probability in human judgment
• Neuroimaging studies identify the neural basis of reasoning and decision-making
  • Prefrontal cortex is involved in executive control and value computation
• Artificial intelligence and machine learning can aid human decision-making
  • Algorithms can detect patterns and make predictions from large datasets
• Debiasing techniques aim to reduce the impact of cognitive biases on judgment and choice
  • Strategies include considering alternatives, taking an outside view, and using checklists
• Nudge theory applies behavioral insights to design choice environments that encourage desirable outcomes
  • Defaults, framing, and social norms can influence behavior while preserving freedom of choice
• Cognitive training interventions seek to improve reasoning and decision-making skills
  • Games and exercises can target specific abilities like working memory or logical reasoning
• Wisdom research examines how people make sound judgments in the face of uncertainty and conflicting values
  • Proposed features of wisdom include perspectival flexibility, integration of emotion and reason, and concern for others