10.1 Science and Politics of Climate Change

Climate change is reshaping our world. Human activities release greenhouse gases, trapping heat and causing global warming. Evidence includes rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and more extreme weather events. Scientists overwhelmingly agree that humans are driving these changes.

Politics and economics play a huge role in climate policies. International agreements aim to limit warming, but face challenges from fossil fuel interests and differing national priorities. While progress has been made, current efforts fall short of meeting temperature goals.

Scientific Evidence and Causes of Climate Change

Evidence for anthropogenic climate change

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• Greenhouse effect traps heat in the atmosphere due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)
• Anthropogenic activities release GHGs into the atmosphere
  • Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) releases CO2
  • Deforestation reduces carbon sinks that absorb CO2
  • Agriculture and livestock contribute to CH4 and N2O emissions (rice cultivation, cattle)
• Observed changes in climate provide evidence of global warming
  • Rising global average temperatures (1.1°C since pre-industrial times)
  • Melting glaciers and polar ice caps (Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet)
  • Sea level rise due to thermal expansion and melting ice (21-24 cm since 1880)
  • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (heatwaves, droughts, hurricanes)
• Scientific consensus confirms human-caused climate change
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports assess scientific evidence
  • 97% of climate scientists agree that climate change is driven by human activities

Political and Economic Factors in Climate Change Policies

Factors in climate change policies

• International negotiations and agreements aim to address climate change
  • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established in 1992
  • Kyoto Protocol set binding emission reduction targets for developed countries
  • Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C
• Economic considerations influence climate policies
  • Costs of transitioning to low-carbon economies (renewable energy, energy efficiency)
  • Potential economic benefits of green technologies and jobs (solar, wind, electric vehicles)
• Political challenges hinder effective climate action
  • Balancing national interests with global responsibilities (energy security, economic growth)
  • Resistance from fossil fuel industries and lobbying groups (coal, oil, gas companies)
  • Varying levels of commitment and action among countries (developed vs. developing nations)
• Equity and justice principles guide climate policies
  • Common but differentiated responsibilities recognize historical emissions and capabilities
  • Addressing the needs and vulnerabilities of developing countries (adaptation, finance, technology transfer)

Effectiveness of climate agreements

• Successes of international climate agreements
  • Increased global awareness and cooperation on climate change
  • Establishment of emission reduction targets and reporting mechanisms
  • Development of carbon markets and clean development mechanisms (emissions trading, offsets)
• Limitations of climate agreements
  • Non-binding nature of some agreements leads to insufficient action (Copenhagen Accord)
  • Insufficient ambition and action to meet temperature goals (current pledges lead to 3°C warming)
  • Lack of enforcement mechanisms and accountability for non-compliance
  • Withdrawal of key players, such as the United States from the Paris Agreement in 2020
• Opportunities for improving the effectiveness of climate agreements
  • Strengthening national commitments and implementation (nationally determined contributions)
  • Enhancing financial and technological support for developing countries (Green Climate Fund)
  • Promoting public-private partnerships and innovation (renewable energy, carbon capture and storage)
  • Integrating climate action with sustainable development goals (SDGs) for co-benefits

Impacts of Climate Change

Impacts of climate change

• Ecosystems face significant risks from climate change
  • Shifts in species distribution and phenology (earlier spring arrival, range shifts)
  • Increased risk of extinction for vulnerable species (polar bears, coral reefs)
  • Alterations in ecosystem structure and function (changes in food webs, nutrient cycling)
  • Ocean acidification and coral bleaching due to increased CO2 absorption (Great Barrier Reef)
• Human health is threatened by various climate impacts
  • Heat-related illnesses and deaths during heatwaves (elderly, urban populations)
  • Spread of vector-borne diseases into new areas (malaria, dengue fever)
  • Respiratory problems due to air pollution and allergens (ozone, pollen)
  • Mental health impacts from displacement and extreme events (anxiety, depression, PTSD)
• Socioeconomic systems are vulnerable to climate risks
  • Agricultural productivity and food security threatened by droughts and extreme weather (crop failures, price spikes)
  • Water scarcity and resource conflicts exacerbated by changes in precipitation patterns (Nile River basin)
  • Infrastructure damage from sea level rise and extreme weather (coastal cities, roads, bridges)
  • Displacement and migration of vulnerable populations (low-lying islands, coastal communities)
  • Economic losses and impacts on key sectors, such as tourism and insurance (coral reef degradation, increased claims)