🦖Environmental Politics and Policy Unit 7 – Climate Change: Political & Policy Challenges

Key Concepts and Definitions

• Climate change refers to long-term shifts in global or regional climate patterns, primarily attributed to increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels
• Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, leading to global warming (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapor)
• Anthropogenic climate change is caused by human activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions, such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agriculture
  • Contrasts with natural climate variability, which occurs due to factors like volcanic eruptions, solar cycles, and ocean circulation patterns
• Climate mitigation involves efforts to reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions to limit the extent of future climate change (renewable energy, energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage)
• Climate adaptation refers to adjusting to the actual or expected effects of climate change to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience (building sea walls, developing drought-resistant crops)
• Carbon footprint represents the total amount of greenhouse gases generated by an individual, organization, or product, often expressed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents
• Climate justice acknowledges that the impacts of climate change disproportionately affect marginalized and vulnerable communities, emphasizing equitable solutions and responsibility

Historical Context of Climate Change

• In the late 19th century, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first proposed that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide could lead to global warming
• The Keeling Curve, a graph showing the accumulation of atmospheric CO2 measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since 1958, provided early evidence of rising greenhouse gas levels
• The First World Climate Conference in 1979 marked the beginning of international scientific collaboration on climate change
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant to understanding climate change
  • IPCC Assessment Reports, released every 5-7 years, synthesize the latest climate science and inform policy decisions
• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, setting the foundation for international climate negotiations
• The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, set legally binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries, marking the first global agreement to mitigate climate change
• The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C

Scientific Consensus and Evidence

• The scientific consensus is that the Earth's climate is warming, and human activities are the primary cause
  • 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that climate change is happening and is human-caused
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have increased from pre-industrial levels of ~280 parts per million (ppm) to over 410 ppm today, higher than at any point in the past 800,000 years
• Global average surface temperatures have risen by approximately 1.1°C since the pre-industrial era, with the past five years being the warmest on record
• Sea levels have risen by about 20 cm since 1901, with the rate of rise accelerating in recent decades due to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land-based ice (glaciers, ice sheets)
• Observations show changes in precipitation patterns, with more frequent and intense droughts in some regions and increased heavy rainfall events in others
• Declining Arctic sea ice extent and thickness, retreating glaciers, and thawing permafrost provide further evidence of a warming climate
• Climate models, based on physical principles and validated against observations, project continued warming and associated impacts under different emissions scenarios

International Climate Agreements

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the foundation for international climate negotiations, with the ultimate objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
• The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, set legally binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries (Annex I Parties) during the first commitment period (2008-2012)
  • Introduced market-based mechanisms (emissions trading, Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation) to help countries meet their targets
• The Copenhagen Accord, reached in 2009, recognized the need to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C but did not include binding commitments
• The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to strengthen the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C
  • Introduces Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), through which countries communicate their emission reduction targets and adaptation plans
  • Emphasizes the importance of climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building to support developing countries
• Ongoing negotiations under the UNFCCC focus on implementing the Paris Agreement, increasing ambition, and addressing issues like loss and damage associated with climate impacts

National and Local Policy Responses

• Countries have developed various policies and measures to address climate change, tailored to their national circumstances and priorities
• Carbon pricing mechanisms, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETS), aim to internalize the external costs of greenhouse gas emissions and incentivize low-carbon technologies and behaviors
  • Examples include the European Union ETS, the California Cap-and-Trade Program, and carbon taxes in countries like Sweden and Canada
• Renewable energy policies, such as feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards, and tax incentives, promote the deployment of renewable energy technologies (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal)
• Energy efficiency standards and labeling programs aim to reduce energy consumption in buildings, appliances, and vehicles
• Land-use policies, such as reducing deforestation, promoting afforestation and reforestation, and sustainable agriculture practices, can help mitigate climate change by enhancing carbon sinks
• Adaptation policies focus on reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to the impacts of climate change (early warning systems, infrastructure improvements, ecosystem-based adaptation)
• Local governments play a crucial role in implementing climate policies, as many decisions affecting emissions and adaptation occur at the local level (urban planning, transportation, waste management)

Economic Implications and Challenges

• Climate change poses significant economic risks, including damage to infrastructure, reduced agricultural productivity, and disruption of supply chains
  • The Stern Review (2006) estimated that the costs of inaction could be equivalent to losing 5-20% of global GDP each year
• Transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires substantial investments in clean energy technologies, energy efficiency, and infrastructure
  • The International Energy Agency estimates that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require annual investments of $3.5 trillion in the energy sector alone by 2050
• Climate policies can have distributional impacts, affecting different sectors, regions, and socioeconomic groups differently
  • For example, carbon pricing can be regressive, disproportionately impacting low-income households that spend a larger share of their income on energy
• Addressing climate change can also create economic opportunities, such as job creation in the renewable energy sector and the development of new technologies and industries
• International climate finance is crucial for supporting developing countries in their mitigation and adaptation efforts
  • The Paris Agreement reaffirms the goal of mobilizing $100 billion per year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries
• Incorporating the risks and costs of climate change into economic decision-making, such as through carbon pricing and climate risk disclosure, can help align financial flows with climate goals

Social and Environmental Justice Issues

• Climate change disproportionately affects marginalized and vulnerable communities, exacerbating existing inequalities and injustices
  • Low-income communities, indigenous peoples, and communities of color often face higher exposure to climate impacts and have fewer resources to adapt
• The concept of climate justice emphasizes the need for equitable solutions that address the uneven distribution of climate impacts and responsibilities
  • This includes ensuring that the costs and benefits of climate actions are fairly shared and that affected communities have a voice in decision-making processes
• Intergenerational equity is a key concern, as the impacts of climate change will be felt most strongly by future generations
  • The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) recognizes that countries have different historical contributions to climate change and varying capacities to address it
• Climate change can exacerbate existing environmental problems, such as air and water pollution, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem degradation
  • These impacts often have disproportionate effects on communities that rely on natural resources for their livelihoods and well-being
• Addressing climate change presents opportunities to promote social and environmental justice, such as through inclusive and participatory decision-making processes, equitable access to clean energy and sustainable development, and the protection of human rights

Future Scenarios and Mitigation Strategies

• The IPCC has developed a range of future emissions scenarios, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to project the potential consequences of different levels of greenhouse gas emissions
  • RCP2.6 represents a stringent mitigation scenario, while RCP8.5 represents a high-emissions "business as usual" scenario
• Limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land use, transportation, buildings, and industrial systems
  • This includes phasing out fossil fuels, scaling up renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and implementing carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies
• Negative emission technologies (NETs), such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC), aim to remove CO2 from the atmosphere to offset residual emissions
  • The feasibility and sustainability of large-scale NETs deployment remain uncertain and controversial
• Nature-based solutions, such as reforestation, ecosystem restoration, and improved land management practices, can contribute to both mitigation and adaptation goals while providing co-benefits for biodiversity and human well-being
• Lifestyle changes, such as adopting plant-based diets, reducing food waste, and shifting to low-carbon transportation modes, can play a significant role in reducing emissions
• Building resilience to the impacts of climate change is crucial, even with ambitious mitigation efforts
  • This includes investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, improving early warning systems, and promoting ecosystem-based adaptation strategies
• Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement requires a global effort, with all countries contributing according to their capabilities and national circumstances, and with support for developing countries to enable their transition to low-carbon and climate-resilient development pathways