8.4 Future of Nuclear Weapons in International Security

Nuclear weapons remain a critical yet controversial aspect of international security. Their future role is shaped by arms control efforts, technological advancements, and evolving strategic doctrines. These factors influence global stability and the potential for conflict escalation.

Emerging challenges like hypersonic missiles and cyber vulnerabilities complicate nuclear deterrence. Meanwhile, modernization programs and debates over tactical nuclear weapons highlight ongoing tensions between deterrence and disarmament goals in the international system.

Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament

Bilateral and Multilateral Treaties

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• New START Treaty signed in 2010 between the U.S. and Russia
  • Limits each country to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles (ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers)
  • Includes extensive verification measures such as on-site inspections and data exchanges
  • Set to expire in 2026 unless extended by mutual agreement
• Nuclear-Free Zones established through regional treaties to prohibit the development, acquisition, or deployment of nuclear weapons within a specific geographical area
  • Examples include the Treaty of Tlatelolco (Latin America and the Caribbean) and the Treaty of Pelindaba (Africa)
  • Serve as confidence-building measures and contribute to global non-proliferation efforts

Civil Society Initiatives

• Global Zero Movement is an international campaign advocating for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons worldwide
  • Comprises political leaders, military experts, and civil society activists
  • Promotes a phased approach to disarmament, beginning with bilateral U.S.-Russia reductions and expanding to multilateral negotiations
• Nuclear Security Summits were a series of high-level meetings initiated by the U.S. in 2010 to address the threat of nuclear terrorism
  • Focused on securing vulnerable nuclear materials, enhancing international cooperation, and strengthening nuclear security architecture
  • Resulted in tangible commitments from participating countries to improve their nuclear security practices (e.g., repatriating highly enriched uranium, ratifying relevant treaties)

Emerging Nuclear Challenges

Technological Advancements

• Hypersonic weapons are missiles that travel at speeds greater than Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) and can maneuver in flight
  • Pose challenges to existing missile defense systems due to their speed and unpredictable trajectories
  • Could compress decision-making timelines and increase the risk of miscalculation or inadvertent escalation
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications in nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems
  • AI could enhance early warning, decision support, and targeting capabilities
  • Concerns about the reliability, explainability, and potential vulnerabilities of AI-enabled systems in high-stakes nuclear contexts

Cyber Vulnerabilities

• Cyber threats to nuclear systems, including command and control networks, delivery platforms, and critical infrastructure
  • Cyber attacks could disrupt or compromise the integrity of nuclear operations, leading to unauthorized use or loss of control
  • Need for robust cybersecurity measures, air-gapped systems, and resilient backup mechanisms to mitigate risks
• Potential for cyber-nuclear entanglement, where cyber capabilities are integrated with nuclear forces and doctrines
  • Blurring of conventional and nuclear domains could lower the threshold for nuclear use or escalation
  • Requires clear signaling, crisis communication channels, and norms to manage escalation risks

Nuclear Posture and Strategy

Force Modernization

• Nuclear modernization programs underway in several countries to upgrade aging arsenals and develop new capabilities
  • United States' Columbia-class submarines, B-21 Raider bombers, and Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) ICBMs
  • Russia's Sarmat heavy ICBMs, Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drones, and Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missiles
  • China's expansion of its nuclear triad with DF-41 ICBMs, JL-3 SLBMs, and H-20 stealth bombers
• Debates over the strategic necessity, cost, and arms race stability implications of modernization efforts

Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons

• Tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) are shorter-range, lower-yield nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use
  • Seen as more "usable" than strategic nuclear weapons due to their limited destructive power
  • Raise concerns about lowering the nuclear threshold and blurring the line between conventional and nuclear conflict
• Role of TNWs in regional deterrence and extended deterrence commitments
  • U.S. forward-deployed TNWs in Europe as part of NATO's nuclear sharing arrangements
  • Russia's large arsenal of TNWs and its "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine
  • Potential for TNW proliferation or use in regional conflicts (e.g., South Asia, Middle East)