17.1 History of international climate negotiations

International climate negotiations have evolved significantly since 1992. From the UNFCCC to the Paris Agreement, these talks have shaped global efforts to combat climate change. Key milestones include the Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accord, and Glasgow Climate Pact.

Various factors influence negotiation outcomes, including scientific evidence, economic interests, and political will. While agreements have established frameworks for cooperation and emissions reduction, challenges remain. The effectiveness of these negotiations in addressing the climate crisis continues to be debated.

Evolution and Effectiveness of International Climate Negotiations

Evolution of climate negotiations

Top images from around the web for Evolution of climate negotiations

• 

  GHG Emissions Kyoto Protocol Limit View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Who’s running late for the Paris Agreement? | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Climate change policy: The missing middle | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  GHG Emissions Kyoto Protocol Limit View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Who’s running late for the Paris Agreement? | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne View original

  Is this image relevant?

1 of 3

Top images from around the web for Evolution of climate negotiations

• 

  GHG Emissions Kyoto Protocol Limit View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Who’s running late for the Paris Agreement? | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Climate change policy: The missing middle | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  GHG Emissions Kyoto Protocol Limit View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Who’s running late for the Paris Agreement? | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne View original

  Is this image relevant?

1 of 3

• 1992: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
  • Aimed to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
  • Recognized the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" based on countries' historical contributions to emissions and their capacities to respond
• 1997: Kyoto Protocol adopted under the UNFCCC framework
  • Set legally binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries (Annex I Parties) for the period 2008-2012
  • Introduced market-based mechanisms such as emissions trading, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI) to facilitate cost-effective mitigation
• 2001: United States withdraws from the Kyoto Protocol citing concerns about economic impacts and lack of commitments for developing countries
  • Weakened the effectiveness of the agreement as the US was the largest emitter at the time
• 2007: Bali Road Map adopted at the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP13) to the UNFCCC
  • Set a timeline and process for negotiating a new comprehensive global climate agreement to be concluded by 2009
  • Emphasized the need for enhanced action on adaptation, technology transfer, and financial support for developing countries
• 2009: Copenhagen Accord reached at COP15 but not formally adopted by all parties
  • Non-binding agreement that recognized the scientific view that global temperature rise should be limited to 2°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid dangerous climate change
  • Countries submitted voluntary emissions reduction pledges but their collective ambition was insufficient to meet the 2°C target
• 2015: Paris Agreement adopted at COP21 as a successor to the Kyoto Protocol
  • Aims to strengthen the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
  • Requires all countries to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate actions and to update them every five years with increasing ambition
• 2021: Glasgow Climate Pact reached at COP26 to accelerate climate action in the 2020s
  • Reaffirms the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and resolves to pursue efforts to meet this target
  • Calls for a phase-down of unabated coal power and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies recognizing the need for support towards a just transition

Milestones in negotiation history

• 1992: Establishment of the UNFCCC at the Rio Earth Summit
  • Laid the foundation for international cooperation and negotiation on addressing climate change
  • Recognized climate change as a common concern of humankind and set the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations
• 1997: Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol as the first legally binding international agreement on climate change
  • Committed developed countries to quantified emissions reduction targets and introduced flexibility mechanisms
  • Significant milestone in translating the UNFCCC's objectives into concrete actions and commitments
• 2001: United States withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol under the Bush administration
  • Significant setback for the Protocol's effectiveness and momentum as the US was a major emitter
  • Highlighted the challenges of ensuring universal participation and ambition in climate agreements
• 2007: Adoption of the Bali Road Map at COP13 charting a course for a post-Kyoto agreement
  • Renewed momentum for negotiating a new comprehensive global climate agreement with a clear timeline
  • Launched the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) to drive the negotiation process
• 2009: Copenhagen Accord reached at COP15 but not formally adopted
  • Marked a shift towards a bottom-up approach of voluntary pledges rather than top-down legally binding targets
  • Disappointment and setback due to the lack of a legally binding agreement and insufficient collective ambition
• 2015: Adoption of the Paris Agreement at COP21 as a landmark achievement in climate diplomacy
  • Universal agreement with participation from all countries signaling a new era of global cooperation on climate change
  • Introduced a hybrid approach combining bottom-up NDCs with top-down elements such as global stocktakes and long-term goals
• 2021: Glasgow Climate Pact reached at COP26 to accelerate implementation of the Paris Agreement
  • Increased ambition and commitment to limiting global warming to 1.5°C and phasing down unabated coal power and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
  • Finalized the Paris Agreement rulebook on issues such as transparency, carbon markets, and common timeframes for NDCs

Factors influencing negotiation outcomes

• Scientific understanding and evidence of climate change impacts
  • Growing scientific consensus on the anthropogenic causes and risks of climate change has driven the urgency for global action (IPCC Assessment Reports)
  • Advancements in climate science have informed the negotiation agenda and targets (1.5°C goal in the Paris Agreement)
• Economic considerations and interests of countries
  • Concerns about the costs of emissions reductions and potential impacts on economic growth and competitiveness have influenced countries' positions (US withdrawal from Kyoto Protocol)
  • Opportunities for low-carbon development, green jobs, and climate finance have also shaped negotiation outcomes (Green Climate Fund)
• Political will and leadership from key countries and individuals
  • The level of political commitment and leadership from major emitters and influential countries has been critical to the ambition and success of agreements (US-China joint announcement before Paris)
  • Personal engagement and diplomacy by political leaders and negotiators have helped build trust and consensus (French diplomacy in Paris)
• Equity and fairness concerns in sharing responsibilities and burdens
  • Debates over the differentiated responsibilities and capabilities of developed and developing countries have been central to the negotiations (principle of common but differentiated responsibilities)
  • Issues of historical responsibility, per capita emissions, and the right to sustainable development have shaped the balance of commitments (Kyoto Protocol's focus on developed countries)
• Role and influence of non-state actors in the negotiation process
  • Increasing engagement and pressure from civil society organizations, businesses, cities, and other stakeholders have added momentum and accountability to the negotiations (Marches, divestment campaigns)
  • Participation of non-state actors as observers and in parallel forums has brought diverse perspectives and solutions to the table (Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action)

Effectiveness of international agreements

• Successes and positive outcomes of climate negotiations
  • Establishment of a global framework and principles for cooperation on climate change through the UNFCCC (near-universal participation with 197 parties)
  • Adoption of legally binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries through the Kyoto Protocol (first commitment period achieved)
  • Broadening of participation and increased ambition through the Paris Agreement (NDCs covering over 90% of global emissions)
  • Mobilization of climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building for developing countries (goal of $100 billion per year by 2020)
• Challenges and limitations in addressing the climate crisis
  • Insufficient ambition of current emissions reduction pledges to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (NDCs projected to lead to 2.7-3.1°C warming by 2100)
  • Lack of strong enforcement and compliance mechanisms for ensuring countries meet their commitments (Kyoto Protocol's non-binding consequences)
  • Slow and uneven progress in translating global agreements into national policies and actions (gap between pledges and implementation)
  • Persistent divisions and tensions between developed and developing countries over responsibilities and support (finance, loss and damage)
• Overall assessment of the role and effectiveness of climate negotiations
  • International negotiations have played a crucial role in raising awareness, setting global goals, and mobilizing collective action on climate change (Paris Agreement as a turning point)
  • Agreements have provided a framework for countries to communicate their actions, report their progress, and engage in dialogue and peer pressure (transparency framework)
  • However, the pace and scale of action have been insufficient to address the urgency and magnitude of the climate crisis (emissions continue to rise)
  • Strengthening the ambition and implementation of commitments remains a critical challenge for future negotiations (ratcheting up NDCs, closing the emissions gap)