14.4 Emerging Powers and Their Political Systems

Emerging powers like Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa have seen rapid economic growth and increased global influence. Their political systems often blend democratic and authoritarian elements, facing challenges like corruption, inequality, and weak rule of law.

These nations grapple with identity politics, security forces' roles, and balancing reform with stability. Economic growth drives political change, but uneven gains can fuel discontent. Globalization has integrated emerging powers into the world economy, increasing their influence but also exposing vulnerabilities.

Political Systems in Emerging Powers

Hybrid Systems and Challenges

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• Emerging powers are countries that have experienced rapid economic growth and increased political influence on the global stage in recent decades (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)
• Many emerging powers have hybrid political systems that combine elements of democracy and authoritarianism
  • Competitive elections alongside restrictions on civil liberties and political opposition
• Emerging powers often face challenges that undermine the stability and legitimacy of their political institutions
  • Corruption
  • Inequality
  • Weak rule of law

Identity Politics and Security Forces

• Identity politics can exacerbate political tensions and complicate governance in diverse emerging powers
  • Ethnic divisions
  • Religious divisions
  • Regional divisions
• The role of the military and security forces in politics varies across emerging powers
  • Explicit military rule (Thailand)
  • More subtle forms of influence and intervention (Pakistan)
• Emerging powers must balance demands for political reform and participation with concerns about social stability and regime survival

Economic Growth and Political Development

Economic Drivers of Political Change

• Economic growth has been a key driver of rising incomes, expanding middle classes, and increased social mobility in many emerging countries
• The developmental state model has been influential in some countries
  • Government actively promotes economic growth and industrialization (China, South Korea)
• Economic success can bolster the legitimacy and popularity of ruling parties or leaders
  • Chinese Communist Party's emphasis on growth and stability

Economic Challenges and Political Instability

• Uneven distribution of economic gains can fuel political discontent and demands for greater inclusion and representation
  • Brazil's protests against inequality and corruption
• Economic downturns or crises can expose underlying political weaknesses and trigger social unrest or regime change
  • Russia's post-Soviet transition
  • Venezuela's economic collapse and political crisis

Globalization's Impact on Emerging Powers

Integration and Influence

• Globalization has facilitated the integration of emerging powers into the world economy
  • Trade
  • Investment
  • Participation in international institutions
• Emerging powers have used their growing economic clout to assert greater political influence
  • In their regions and on the global stage
  • Through forums like BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Constraints and Backlash

• Exposure to global markets and capital flows can constrain the policy autonomy of emerging powers and make them vulnerable to external shocks
  • 1997 Asian financial crisis
  • 2008 global financial crisis
• The rise of emerging powers has challenged the dominance of Western countries in global governance
  • Calls for reforms to institutions like the United Nations Security Council and the International Monetary Fund
• Backlash against globalization in some emerging powers reflects tensions between international integration and domestic politics
  • India's Hindu nationalism
  • Brazil's protectionist policies

Political Trajectories of Emerging Powers

China and India

• China has maintained a one-party state under the Chinese Communist Party while pursuing market-oriented economic reforms
  • Rapid growth but limited political liberalization
• India, the world's largest democracy, has experienced economic liberalization and the rise of Hindu nationalism under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
  • Persistent challenges of poverty and inequality

Russia and Brazil

• Russia has transitioned from communist rule to a centralized, authoritarian system under President Vladimir Putin
  • State-dominated economy dependent on energy exports
• Brazil emerged from military dictatorship to a vibrant multi-party democracy
  • Faced political instability, corruption scandals, and economic crisis in recent years

South Africa and Turkey

• South Africa's post-apartheid transition to majority rule has been accompanied by the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC)
  • Challenges of inequality, crime, and corruption
• Turkey has seen the rise of Islamist politics under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
  • Increasing authoritarianism and tensions with the secular military