10.1 Scientific realism and the no-miracles argument

Scientific realism claims successful scientific theories accurately describe reality, including unobservable entities. It argues that science aims for truth and that mature theories succeed because they correctly capture the world's structure.

The no-miracles argument supports scientific realism. It contends that the predictive success of scientific theories would be miraculous if they didn't accurately describe reality. This view emphasizes science's ability to make accurate predictions about unobserved phenomena.

Scientific Realism and Unobservables

Core Principles of Scientific Realism

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• Scientific realism posits that well-established scientific theories provide accurate descriptions of the world
• Asserts the existence of both observable and unobservable entities described by successful scientific theories
• Maintains that scientific theories aim to provide true or approximately true descriptions of reality
• Argues that mature scientific theories are successful because they correctly describe the underlying structure of the world
• Contrasts with anti-realist positions that view scientific theories as useful tools without necessarily corresponding to reality

Unobservable Entities and Truth-likeness

• Unobservable entities refer to theoretical constructs not directly perceivable by human senses (electrons, quarks, dark matter)
• Scientific realists argue that these entities exist independently of our ability to observe them directly
• Truth-likeness (verisimilitude) measures how closely a scientific theory approximates the truth
• Emphasizes that scientific theories can be more or less accurate representations of reality, rather than simply true or false
• Convergent realism suggests that successive scientific theories become increasingly accurate approximations of the truth over time
• Proposes that scientific progress involves theories converging on a more accurate description of reality (Newtonian mechanics to general relativity)

No-Miracles Argument

Understanding the No-Miracles Argument

• No-miracles argument serves as a key justification for scientific realism
• Contends that the predictive success of scientific theories would be miraculous if they did not accurately describe reality
• Argues that the best explanation for the success of scientific theories is that they are at least approximately true
• Emphasizes the remarkable ability of scientific theories to make accurate predictions about previously unobserved phenomena
• Suggests that the explanatory power of scientific theories provides strong evidence for their truth or approximate truth

Inference to the Best Explanation

• Inference to the best explanation forms the logical foundation of the no-miracles argument
• Involves selecting the hypothesis that provides the best explanation for observed phenomena
• Applies this reasoning to scientific realism: the best explanation for the success of scientific theories is their truth or approximate truth
• Argues that scientific realism offers a more compelling explanation for scientific success than anti-realist alternatives
• Supports the view that successful scientific theories capture real features of the world, including unobservable entities

Predictive Success and Scientific Progress

• Predictive success refers to the ability of scientific theories to accurately forecast future observations or experimental outcomes
• Highlights the remarkable track record of scientific theories in making novel predictions (discovery of Neptune, existence of antimatter)
• Argues that this predictive power strongly supports the truth or approximate truth of scientific theories
• Emphasizes the cumulative nature of scientific progress, with newer theories building on and refining older ones
• Suggests that the increasing accuracy and scope of scientific predictions indicate a convergence towards truth

Challenges to Scientific Realism

Pessimistic Meta-Induction and Historical Counterarguments

• Pessimistic meta-induction challenges scientific realism by pointing to the historical record of scientific theories
• Argues that many past scientific theories, once considered successful, have been later proven false or replaced
• Cites examples of abandoned scientific concepts (phlogiston theory, luminiferous ether) to question the reliability of current theories
• Suggests that the historical pattern of theory change undermines confidence in the truth of current scientific theories
• Challenges the notion of convergent realism by highlighting discontinuities and radical shifts in scientific understanding
• Raises questions about whether unobservable entities posited by current theories will survive future scientific revolutions