📈Business Microeconomics Unit 14 – Investment & Risk Management Decisions

Key Concepts and Definitions

• Investment involves allocating resources (usually money) with the expectation of generating future returns or benefits
• Risk is the potential for loss or the uncertainty of outcomes associated with an investment
• Return is the gain or loss on an investment, typically expressed as a percentage of the initial investment
• Diversification spreads investments across different assets or sectors to reduce overall portfolio risk
• Discounting adjusts future cash flows to their present value using a discount rate that reflects the time value of money and risk
• Systematic risk (market risk) affects the entire market and cannot be diversified away
  • Includes factors such as interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions
• Unsystematic risk (specific risk) is unique to a particular company or industry and can be reduced through diversification
• Portfolio theory examines how investors can construct optimal portfolios by considering the trade-off between risk and return

Investment Decision-Making Process

• Define investment goals and objectives, considering factors such as return requirements, risk tolerance, and time horizon
• Identify and evaluate potential investment opportunities based on their expected returns, risks, and alignment with goals
• Conduct thorough due diligence, analyzing financial statements, market conditions, and industry trends
• Assess the risk-return trade-off of each investment option, considering both quantitative and qualitative factors
• Make investment decisions based on the analysis and alignment with the defined goals and objectives
• Monitor and regularly review the performance of investments, making adjustments as necessary to maintain the desired risk-return profile
• Rebalance the portfolio periodically to ensure it remains aligned with the investor's goals and changing market conditions
• Continuously learn and adapt the investment strategy based on market developments, new information, and lessons learned

Risk Assessment Techniques

• Sensitivity analysis evaluates how changes in key variables (e.g., interest rates, commodity prices) affect investment outcomes
• Scenario analysis considers the potential impact of different future scenarios (best case, worst case, most likely) on investment performance
• Monte Carlo simulation generates a range of possible outcomes by randomly varying input variables based on their probability distributions
• Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum potential loss over a specific time period at a given confidence level
• Stress testing assesses the resilience of investments under extreme market conditions or hypothetical scenarios
• Duration measures the sensitivity of bond prices to changes in interest rates, with longer-duration bonds being more sensitive
• Beta measures the volatility of an individual stock or portfolio relative to the overall market, with a beta greater than 1 indicating higher volatility
• Sharpe ratio compares the excess return of an investment relative to the risk-free rate, divided by its standard deviation, to evaluate risk-adjusted performance

Time Value of Money and Discounting

• Money has a time value because of the opportunity to earn interest or returns over time
• Present value (PV) is the current worth of a future sum of money or cash flow, discounted at a specific rate
  • Calculated as: $PV = \frac{FV}{(1+r)^n}$, where FV is the future value, r is the discount rate, and n is the number of periods
• Future value (FV) is the value of a current sum of money or investment at a specified future date, assuming a certain interest rate
  • Calculated as: $FV = PV(1+r)^n$, using the same variables as the PV formula
• Net present value (NPV) is the sum of the present values of all future cash inflows and outflows of an investment
  • A positive NPV indicates a profitable investment, while a negative NPV suggests an unprofitable one
• Internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate that makes the NPV of an investment equal to zero
  • IRR is used to compare the profitability of different investments, with higher IRRs being more desirable
• Annuities are series of equal payments made at regular intervals, such as monthly or yearly
  • The present value of an annuity can be calculated using the formula: $PV = PMT \cdot \frac{1 - (1+r)^{-n}}{r}$, where PMT is the periodic payment, r is the discount rate per period, and n is the total number of periods

Portfolio Theory and Diversification

• Portfolio theory, developed by Harry Markowitz, emphasizes the importance of diversification in managing investment risk
• Diversification involves spreading investments across different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate), sectors, and geographic regions
• The goal of diversification is to minimize unsystematic risk, as the positive performance of some investments can offset the negative performance of others
• Correlation measures the relationship between the returns of different assets, ranging from -1 (perfect negative correlation) to +1 (perfect positive correlation)
  • Assets with low or negative correlations provide better diversification benefits
• Efficient frontier represents the set of optimal portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk or the lowest risk for a given expected return
• Investors can choose a portfolio along the efficient frontier based on their risk tolerance and return objectives
• Rebalancing involves periodically adjusting the portfolio's asset allocation to maintain the desired risk-return profile and prevent drift from the target allocation
• Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss, but it can help manage risk and improve the stability of investment returns over time

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

• CAPM is a model that describes the relationship between the expected return and risk of an investment in a well-diversified portfolio
• The model assumes that investors are risk-averse and that they only take on additional risk if compensated with higher expected returns
• CAPM formula: $E(R_i) = R_f + \beta_i[E(R_m) - R_f]$, where $E(R_i)$ is the expected return of the investment, $R_f$ is the risk-free rate, $\beta_i$ is the investment's beta, and $E(R_m)$ is the expected return of the market
• The risk-free rate $(R_f)$ is the theoretical return of an investment with zero risk, often approximated by the yield on government securities
• Beta $(\beta)$ measures the sensitivity of an investment's returns to changes in the overall market, with a beta of 1 indicating the investment moves in line with the market
• Market risk premium $[E(R_m) - R_f]$ is the excess return that investors expect to earn by investing in the market portfolio instead of the risk-free asset
• Security Market Line (SML) graphically represents the CAPM, showing the linear relationship between an investment's expected return and its beta
• Limitations of CAPM include its reliance on historical data, assumption of a single-period investment horizon, and the difficulty in estimating accurate input variables

Real Options and Strategic Investments

• Real options apply option pricing theory to real assets and strategic investment decisions
• A real option is the right, but not the obligation, to take a specific action (expand, abandon, defer) concerning a real asset at a predetermined cost and time
• Types of real options include:
  • Option to expand: The ability to invest additional capital to expand a project if conditions are favorable
  • Option to abandon: The ability to abandon or sell a project if conditions are unfavorable
  • Option to defer: The ability to delay the start of a project until more information is available or market conditions improve
• Real options capture the value of managerial flexibility in adapting to changing market conditions and new information
• The value of a real option is influenced by factors such as the underlying asset value, exercise price, time to expiration, volatility, and risk-free rate
• Real options can be valued using models such as the Black-Scholes model or binomial lattice models, which account for the uncertainty and flexibility inherent in the investment
• Incorporating real options into investment decision-making can lead to more accurate valuation and better-informed strategic choices
• Challenges in applying real options include estimating input variables, identifying and defining the options, and communicating the results to decision-makers

Behavioral Finance in Investment Decisions

• Behavioral finance combines insights from psychology and economics to understand how emotions and cognitive biases influence investor behavior and market outcomes
• Prospect theory, developed by Kahneman and Tversky, suggests that investors value gains and losses differently and make decisions based on perceived gains rather than absolute wealth
• Loss aversion refers to the tendency of investors to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains, leading to a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains
• Mental accounting is the process by which individuals categorize and evaluate financial decisions, often treating money differently based on its source or intended use
• Herd behavior occurs when investors follow the actions of others, leading to market trends and potential bubbles or crashes
• Overconfidence bias causes investors to overestimate their abilities, knowledge, and the precision of their predictions
• Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, and favor information that confirms pre-existing beliefs while giving less attention to contradictory information
• Anchoring bias occurs when investors rely too heavily on an initial piece of information (the "anchor") when making decisions, insufficiently adjusting their views based on new data
• Familiarity bias leads investors to prefer investments in companies or industries they are familiar with, potentially leading to under-diversification
• Incorporating behavioral finance principles into investment decision-making can help investors recognize and mitigate the impact of emotional and cognitive biases on their choices