1.5 Geopolitical codes

Geopolitical codes shape how countries view and interact with each other globally. These strategic assumptions guide foreign policy, defining national interests, threats, and responses within geographic and political contexts.

Local actors develop codes based on specific interests, while global actors reflect collective values. Tensions between peace and conflict visions influence state behaviors. Practical codes guide daily decisions, while formal codes provide public justification for policy goals.

Geopolitical codes defined

• Geopolitical codes are a set of strategic assumptions that a government makes about other states in forming its foreign policy
• They provide a definition of a country's national interests, potential threats, and feasible responses within a geographic and political context
• Geopolitical codes shape how countries perceive and interact with each other on the global stage

Geopolitical codes vs geopolitical visions

Geopolitical codes of local vs global actors

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• Local actors (individual countries) develop geopolitical codes based on their specific national interests, capabilities, and regional dynamics
• Global actors (international organizations, alliances) formulate geopolitical codes that reflect collective interests and shared values among member states
• The geopolitical codes of local and global actors may align or conflict depending on the issue and context

Geopolitical visions of peace vs conflict

• Some geopolitical visions prioritize peace, cooperation, and multilateralism as a means to achieve security and prosperity (United Nations)
• Other geopolitical visions emphasize conflict, competition, and unilateralism as necessary for defending national interests and projecting power (realist perspective)
• The tension between visions of peace and conflict shapes the geopolitical codes and behaviors of state and non-state actors

Practical vs formal geopolitical codes

Practical geopolitical codes in foreign policy

• Practical geopolitical codes guide the day-to-day decisions and actions of foreign policy practitioners (diplomats, military leaders)
• They are based on real-time assessments of geopolitical situations, power dynamics, and national interests
• Practical geopolitical codes are often fluid and adaptable to changing circumstances on the ground

Formal geopolitical codes in political discourse

• Formal geopolitical codes are articulated in official statements, doctrines, and strategies of governments and political leaders
• They provide a public justification and framework for a country's foreign policy goals and priorities
• Formal geopolitical codes are more stable and enduring, reflecting long-term national interests and values

Geopolitical codes of allies vs adversaries

Geopolitical codes in times of war

• During wartime, geopolitical codes are shaped by the identification of allies and adversaries in the conflict
• Allies are framed as sharing common interests, values, and threats, while adversaries are portrayed as hostile and threatening
• Geopolitical codes in war justify military actions, alliances, and propaganda to mobilize support and resources (World War II, War on Terror)

Geopolitical codes in times of peace

• In peacetime, geopolitical codes still distinguish between allies and adversaries but with less stark and militarized terms
• Allies are seen as partners for cooperation, trade, and diplomacy, while adversaries are competitors or rivals in the international system
• Geopolitical codes in peace emphasize shared interests, dialogue, and conflict resolution to manage tensions and avoid escalation (détente, multilateralism)

Geopolitical codes of territory

Geopolitical codes of borders

• Geopolitical codes assign meaning and importance to national borders as markers of sovereignty, identity, and security
• Borders can be framed as inviolable and essential to protect (fortified borders) or as fluid and open for exchange (transnational flows)
• The geopolitical codes of borders shape policies on trade, migration, and border security (US-Mexico border, Schengen Area)

Geopolitical codes of regions

• Geopolitical codes also define and characterize regions as distinct geographic and political entities with shared features and dynamics
• Regions can be seen as spheres of influence, buffer zones, or strategic pivots for projecting power and pursuing interests (Middle East, Asia-Pacific)
• The geopolitical codes of regions inform foreign policy approaches and alignments with regional actors and institutions (European Union, African Union)

Geopolitical codes of identity

Geopolitical codes of nationalism

• Geopolitical codes are often infused with nationalist ideas and sentiments that shape perceptions of the nation and its place in the world
• Nationalist geopolitical codes emphasize the uniqueness, superiority, and interests of the nation above other considerations
• They can lead to more assertive and confrontational foreign policies to defend the nation's honor, territory, and way of life (populist nationalism)

Geopolitical codes of ideology

• Geopolitical codes can also be based on ideological worldviews that transcend national boundaries and identities
• Ideological geopolitical codes frame international relations in terms of competing systems, values, and visions for global order (capitalism vs communism)
• They can motivate countries to export their ideologies, intervene in other states, and form alliances with like-minded actors (Cold War, Arab Spring)

Geopolitical codes of resources

Geopolitical codes of trade

• Geopolitical codes related to trade define a country's economic interests, partners, and competitors in the global market
• They shape policies on free trade agreements, protectionism, and economic sanctions to advance national interests (NAFTA, US-China trade war)
• The geopolitical codes of trade reflect power dynamics and interdependencies among countries in the international economic system

Geopolitical codes of energy

• Geopolitical codes also revolve around access to and control over vital energy resources, especially oil and gas
• Energy-related geopolitical codes drive foreign policies to secure energy supplies, protect transit routes, and influence energy markets (Persian Gulf, Arctic)
• They can lead to competition, conflict, and cooperation among energy producers, consumers, and transit states (OPEC, Russia-Europe gas trade)

Geopolitical codes in history

Geopolitical codes of the Cold War era

• During the Cold War, geopolitical codes were dominated by the bipolar rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union
• The superpowers developed opposing geopolitical codes based on their ideologies, spheres of influence, and nuclear deterrence (containment, Brezhnev Doctrine)
• The Cold War geopolitical codes fueled proxy wars, arms races, and the division of the world into competing blocs (NATO, Warsaw Pact)

Geopolitical codes of the post-Cold War era

• After the end of the Cold War, geopolitical codes shifted to reflect the new realities of the international system
• The United States emerged as the sole superpower with a geopolitical code of global leadership and liberal hegemony (Washington Consensus)
• Other powers, such as Russia and China, developed geopolitical codes that challenged US dominance and sought to establish multipolar orders (Beijing Consensus)

Geopolitical codes in current events

Geopolitical codes of rising powers

• In the current geopolitical landscape, rising powers are formulating new geopolitical codes that reflect their growing influence and ambitions
• China's geopolitical code emphasizes its "peaceful rise," "win-win cooperation," and the creation of a "community of shared future for mankind" (Belt and Road Initiative)
• India's geopolitical code balances strategic autonomy with engagement in multilateral institutions and regional partnerships (Act East Policy)

Geopolitical codes of declining powers

• At the same time, established powers are grappling with geopolitical codes that respond to their relative decline and challenges to their leadership
• The United States' geopolitical code under Trump emphasized "America First," transactional alliances, and great power competition (trade wars, JCPOA withdrawal)
• The European Union's geopolitical code is strained by internal divisions, external crises, and the need to redefine its role in a changing world order (Brexit, migration crisis)