8.1 Climate refugees

Climate refugees are people forced to leave their homes due to climate change impacts like rising seas, extreme weather, and droughts. This growing issue challenges traditional refugee definitions and highlights the need for new legal frameworks and international cooperation.

The number of climate refugees is expected to rise dramatically in coming decades. This will strain resources in destination countries and potentially fuel social tensions. Addressing climate migration requires proactive policies, disaster risk reduction, and climate change mitigation efforts.

Defining climate refugees

• Climate refugees are individuals or groups forced to leave their homes due to the adverse effects of climate change
• They are displaced by environmental factors such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and prolonged droughts
• Climate refugees often face unique challenges, as they may not fit the traditional definition of a refugee under international law

Causes of climate migration

Sea level rise

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• Rising global temperatures cause thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land-based ice, leading to sea level rise
• Coastal communities and low-lying islands are particularly vulnerable to inundation and erosion
• Sea level rise can lead to saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources and agricultural land, making them unusable
• Examples of areas affected by sea level rise include the Maldives, Tuvalu, and the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

Extreme weather events

• Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, typhoons, and floods
• These events can cause widespread destruction of homes, infrastructure, and livelihoods, forcing people to migrate
• Examples include Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico (2017) and Cyclone Idai in Mozambique (2019)

Drought and desertification

• Changes in precipitation patterns and rising temperatures can lead to prolonged droughts and desertification
• Droughts can cause crop failures, food insecurity, and water scarcity, driving people to seek better opportunities elsewhere
• Desertification reduces the amount of arable land available for agriculture, further exacerbating migration pressures
• Examples include the Sahel region of Africa and parts of the Middle East

Global scale of climate refugees

Current estimates

• The exact number of climate refugees is difficult to determine, as there is no universally accepted definition or tracking mechanism
• Estimates vary widely, ranging from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of people currently displaced by climate-related factors
• The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reported that 30.7 million people were newly displaced by disasters in 2020, many of which were climate-related

Future projections

• The number of climate refugees is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades as the impacts of climate change intensify
• The World Bank estimates that by 2050, up to 143 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America could be forced to move within their countries due to climate change
• Some projections suggest that there could be as many as 1 billion climate refugees by the end of the 21st century

Legal status of climate refugees

Lack of legal recognition

• Climate refugees do not have a legally recognized status under international law, as the 1951 Refugee Convention does not include environmental factors as grounds for refugee status
• This lack of legal recognition leaves climate refugees without the same protections and rights as traditionally recognized refugees
• The term "climate refugee" itself is not officially recognized, with some preferring terms like "climate migrant" or "environmentally displaced person"

Challenges for international law

• The international community has been slow to address the issue of climate migration and develop legal frameworks to protect those affected
• There are debates about whether the Refugee Convention should be amended to include climate refugees or if a new, separate legal instrument is needed
• Challenges include determining the threshold for what constitutes climate-induced displacement and addressing the multi-causal nature of migration

Impacts on origin countries

Economic losses

• Climate-related disasters and slow-onset events can cause significant economic losses in origin countries
• Damage to infrastructure, agricultural land, and other productive assets can hinder economic growth and development
• The loss of human capital through migration can also have negative economic consequences

Brain drain

• Climate migration often involves the movement of skilled and educated individuals, leading to a "brain drain" in origin countries
• This loss of human capital can hinder innovation, productivity, and the delivery of essential services like healthcare and education
• Brain drain can exacerbate existing inequalities and slow down economic and social progress

Political instability

• Climate-related stressors can contribute to political instability and conflict in origin countries
• Competition over scarce resources, such as water and arable land, can lead to social tensions and violence
• The mass displacement of people can strain governance systems and undermine political legitimacy
• Examples include the role of drought in the Syrian conflict and the link between climate change and farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria

Impacts on destination countries

Strain on resources and infrastructure

• Large-scale climate migration can put pressure on the resources and infrastructure of destination countries
• Increased demand for housing, healthcare, education, and other services can strain existing systems
• Destination countries may struggle to accommodate the needs of both migrants and local populations

Social and cultural tensions

• The arrival of climate refugees can lead to social and cultural tensions in destination countries
• Differences in language, religion, and customs can create challenges for integration and social cohesion
• Misconceptions and stereotypes about migrants can fuel discrimination and xenophobia

Political backlash against migrants

• The influx of climate refugees can trigger political backlash and anti-immigrant sentiment in destination countries
• Populist and nationalist movements may exploit fears about migration to gain political support
• Governments may adopt more restrictive migration policies in response to public pressure
• Examples include the rise of anti-immigrant parties in Europe and the political discourse surrounding migration in the United States

Case studies of climate migration

Pacific Island nations

• Many Pacific Island nations, such as Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands, are facing existential threats from rising sea levels
• These low-lying islands are experiencing coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and more frequent flooding
• Some Pacific Island nations are exploring options for planned relocation and migration pathways to other countries
• Kiribati has purchased land in Fiji as a potential resettlement site for its population

Sub-Saharan Africa

• Sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including drought, desertification, and extreme weather events
• Countries in the Sahel region, such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, have experienced increased desertification and land degradation
• Drought and famine have driven migration in countries like Somalia and South Sudan
• Climate change is expected to exacerbate existing migration patterns and create new ones

South and Southeast Asia

• South and Southeast Asia are home to some of the world's most densely populated and climate-vulnerable regions
• Bangladesh, a low-lying country with a large coastal population, is particularly at risk from sea level rise and cyclones
• The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is experiencing saltwater intrusion and land subsidence, threatening the livelihoods of millions
• Climate-related migration in the region is often intertwined with other factors such as economic opportunities and urbanization

International responses to climate migration

UN Global Compact for Migration

• The UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration, adopted in 2018, is the first global agreement to address all aspects of international migration
• The compact recognizes the role of climate change as a driver of migration and calls for measures to address the challenges posed by climate-related displacement
• However, the compact is non-binding and its implementation depends on the political will of member states

Regional agreements and initiatives

• Some regions have developed their own agreements and initiatives to address climate migration
• The Pacific Islands Forum has adopted the Boe Declaration, which recognizes climate change as the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security, and well-being of Pacific peoples
• The African Union has established the Kampala Convention, which provides a framework for protecting and assisting internally displaced persons, including those displaced by natural disasters
• Regional cooperation can help to share best practices, pool resources, and develop coordinated responses to climate migration

Adaptation and resilience strategies

Disaster risk reduction

• Disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies aim to minimize the impacts of climate-related hazards and reduce the need for displacement
• DRR measures include early warning systems, evacuation plans, and the construction of resilient infrastructure
• Investing in DRR can help communities to better withstand and recover from climate shocks

Climate change mitigation

• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting global warming is crucial for minimizing the long-term impacts of climate change and the scale of climate migration
• Mitigation efforts include transitioning to renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and protecting carbon sinks like forests
• Ambitious climate action is necessary to avoid the worst-case scenarios for climate displacement

Planned relocation and resettlement

• In some cases, planned relocation and resettlement may be necessary to move communities out of harm's way
• Planned relocation involves the voluntary, organized movement of people from high-risk areas to safer locations
• Successful relocation requires careful planning, consultation with affected communities, and support for livelihoods and social networks in the new location
• Examples of planned relocation include the Vunidogoloa village in Fiji, which was relocated due to coastal erosion and flooding

Ethical considerations and responsibilities

Climate justice and equity

• Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable and marginalized communities, who have contributed the least to the problem
• Climate justice seeks to address these inequities and ensure that the burdens and benefits of climate action are fairly distributed
• Protecting the rights and dignity of climate refugees is a matter of climate justice

Role of developed vs developing countries

• Developed countries have a greater historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and a greater capacity to support climate adaptation and migration
• The principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" suggests that developed countries should take the lead in addressing climate change and supporting developing countries
• Developed countries can provide financial, technical, and capacity-building support to help developing countries manage climate migration
• However, the scale of the challenge requires global cooperation and shared responsibility

Future outlook and challenges

Potential for increased conflict

• Climate change and migration can interact with other factors, such as resource scarcity, political instability, and ethnic tensions, to increase the risk of conflict
• Competition over diminishing resources, such as water and arable land, can fuel social and political unrest
• The mass displacement of people can strain social cohesion and create conditions for conflict
• Addressing the root causes of climate migration and promoting sustainable development can help to mitigate these risks

Need for proactive policies and planning

• Governments and the international community need to develop proactive policies and plans to manage climate migration in a humane and orderly manner
• This includes improving legal frameworks to protect the rights of climate refugees, investing in adaptation and resilience, and supporting sustainable development in origin and destination countries
• Proactive planning can help to minimize the negative impacts of climate migration and maximize the potential benefits, such as remittances and skills transfer
• However, political will and international cooperation will be essential to address this complex and cross-cutting challenge