11.3 International intervention and proxy warfare in Syria

The Syrian conflict became a complex international affair, drawing in global powers and regional actors. The US opposed Assad, while Russia supported him, leading to a proxy war. Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel also got involved, each pursuing their own interests in the region.

International interventions further complicated the situation. US airstrikes targeted ISIS, while Russian support bolstered Assad's regime. These conflicting actions, along with divergent interests and the humanitarian crisis, made finding a resolution extremely challenging.

International Actors and Regional Powers in the Syrian Conflict

Key actors in Syrian conflict

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• United States
  • Opposed Assad regime viewing it as oppressive and destabilizing
  • Supported moderate rebel groups (Free Syrian Army) to counter Assad
  • Focused on combating ISIS and other terrorist organizations (al-Qaeda) to prevent their growth and influence in the region
• Russia
  • Longstanding ally of Assad regime providing crucial diplomatic and military support
  • Provided military support to Syrian government forces including airstrikes, weapons, and advisors
  • Aimed to maintain influence in the region, protect its strategic interests (naval base in Tartus), and counter US influence
• European Union
  • Opposed Assad regime due to human rights abuses and suppression of dissent
  • Provided humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees fleeing the conflict (food, shelter, medical care)
  • Supported diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict through negotiations and peace talks
• United Nations
  • Attempted to facilitate peace negotiations and ceasefires between the Syrian government and opposition groups
  • Provided humanitarian assistance to affected populations through agencies (UNHCR, WFP)
  • Investigated human rights abuses and war crimes committed by all sides in the conflict

Regional powers' involvement

• Iran
  • Key ally of Assad regime providing crucial military and financial support
  • Provided military support including troops, advisors, and weapons (missiles, drones)
  • Aimed to maintain its regional influence, counter Saudi Arabia, and secure a friendly government in Syria
• Turkey
  • Initially opposed Assad regime and supported rebel groups to oust him
  • Supported rebel groups, particularly those aligned with its interests (Syrian National Army)
  • Later focused on combating Kurdish forces (YPG) it viewed as a threat and securing its southern border
• Saudi Arabia
  • Opposed Assad regime viewing it as an Iranian proxy and threat to regional stability
  • Supported rebel groups, particularly Sunni Islamist factions (Jaysh al-Islam), with weapons and funding
  • Aimed to counter Iranian influence in the region and install a friendly Sunni government in Syria
• Israel
  • Concerned about the presence of Iranian forces and Hezbollah, its sworn enemy, in neighboring Syria
  • Conducted airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets to prevent weapons transfers and attacks on Israel
  • Aimed to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence in Syria that could threaten Israeli security

International Interventions and Conflict Resolution

US and Russian interventions

• US intervention
  • Conducted airstrikes against ISIS and other terrorist groups to degrade their capabilities
  • Provided support to Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighting against ISIS
  • Contributed to the territorial decline of ISIS but had limited impact on the overall trajectory of the conflict
• Russian intervention
  • Launched airstrikes in support of Assad regime targeting both rebels and civilians
  • Deployed military personnel, aircraft, and naval assets to shore up the Syrian government
  • Shifted the balance of power decisively in favor of the Syrian government enabling it to reverse rebel gains
  • Enabled the Assad regime to regain control over key territories (Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta) and solidify its grip on power
• Interaction between US and Russian interventions
  • Led to increased tensions and risk of direct confrontation as both powers operated in close proximity
  • Complicated efforts to achieve a diplomatic solution as the US and Russia backed opposing sides

Challenges of international resolution

• Divergent interests of international actors
  • Conflicting goals and priorities among key players (US, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia)
  • Difficulty in achieving consensus on a political solution acceptable to all parties
• Complexity of the conflict
  • Multiple factions and shifting alliances among rebel groups, jihadists, and Kurdish forces
  • Interplay of regional and global power dynamics as outside powers vie for influence
  • Presence of terrorist organizations (ISIS, al-Qaeda) and extremist groups further complicating the situation
• Humanitarian crisis
  • Massive displacement of civilians with millions fleeing as refugees to neighboring countries (Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan)
  • Challenges in providing aid and protection to affected populations in active conflict zones
  • Strain on neighboring countries hosting large refugee populations taxing their resources and stability
• Limitations of diplomatic efforts
  • Failure of UN-led peace negotiations (Geneva talks) to produce a viable political settlement
  • Lack of enforcement mechanisms for ceasefires and agreements leading to repeated violations
  • Difficulty in ensuring compliance from all parties involved, particularly the Syrian government and hardline rebel factions