13.4 Impact on regional stability and international relations

The Iran-Saudi rivalry has far-reaching consequences for regional stability and global diplomacy. From exacerbating sectarian tensions to fueling proxy wars, this conflict shapes the Middle East's geopolitical landscape and complicates international security efforts.

Despite entrenched mistrust and political constraints, there's potential for rapprochement. Shared economic interests, evolving regional dynamics, and generational change offer opportunities for dialogue. International pressure and incentives could pave the way for gradual normalization of relations between these key regional powers.

Impact on Regional Stability and International Relations

Consequences of Iran-Saudi rivalry

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• Increased sectarian tensions
  • Sunni-Shia divide exacerbated by proxy conflicts in countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen
  • Heightened risk of communal violence and civil unrest in nations with mixed Sunni-Shia populations (Lebanon, Bahrain)
• Proxy wars and regional conflicts
  • Yemen: Houthis receive military support from Iran while Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia
  • Syria: Assad regime propped up by Iranian forces while opposition groups receive funding and weapons from Saudi Arabia
  • Iraq: Shia-dominated government closely aligned with Iran while Sunni insurgents have received support from Saudi Arabia
• Arms race and military buildup
  • Both countries investing heavily in military capabilities, including advanced weapons systems (ballistic missiles, fighter jets)
  • Increased risk of direct confrontation and escalation, potentially leading to a wider regional war
• Economic and energy security implications
  • Disruption of oil and gas production and transportation in the Persian Gulf due to potential attacks on infrastructure
  • Instability affecting global energy markets and prices, as the region accounts for a significant share of world oil supplies

Implications for global diplomacy

• Polarization of the international community
  • Countries forced to choose sides or maintain neutrality in the rivalry, complicating diplomatic relations
  • Diplomatic challenges in multilateral forums like the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation
• Complication of global security initiatives
  • Difficulty in achieving consensus on issues like counterterrorism and non-proliferation due to competing interests
  • Rivalry hindering cooperation on shared challenges such as defeating ISIS and addressing climate change
• Impact on great power dynamics
  • U.S. balancing act between Saudi Arabia, a traditional ally, and Iran, especially after the nuclear deal (JCPOA)
  • Russia and China exploiting the rivalry to expand their influence in the region through arms sales and economic deals
• Strain on international institutions and norms
  • Undermining of the authority and effectiveness of the UN and other multilateral bodies in resolving conflicts
  • Erosion of international law and human rights norms as both sides engage in violations and abuses

Challenges in conflict resolution

• Lack of direct communication channels
  • No formal diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, making direct negotiations difficult
  • Reliance on intermediaries and back-channel negotiations, which can be unreliable and slow
• Entrenched mistrust and animosity
  • Long history of ideological and geopolitical rivalry dating back to the Iranian Revolution in 1979
  • Mutual demonization and propaganda portraying the other side as an existential threat
• Domestic political constraints
  • Hardliners in both countries opposing rapprochement and viewing compromise as weakness
  • Public opinion and nationalist sentiment limiting room for compromise and concessions
• Potential for confidence-building measures
  • Incremental steps to reduce tensions such as prisoner exchanges and humanitarian cooperation
  • Engagement in multilateral forums and regional initiatives to build trust and find common ground
• Third-party mediation and international support
  • Role of neutral countries like Oman and Kuwait in facilitating dialogue and acting as go-betweens
  • International community providing incentives and guarantees for de-escalation, such as sanctions relief

Potential for Iran-Saudi rapprochement

• Shared economic interests
  • Both countries heavily dependent on oil exports and vulnerable to market fluctuations and price shocks
  • Potential for cooperation in stabilizing energy prices and ensuring supply security through OPEC+
• Evolving regional dynamics
  • Common threats from non-state actors and extremist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda
  • Shifting alliances and partnerships in the Middle East, such as the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab states
• Generational change and leadership transitions
  • Emergence of younger, more pragmatic leaders in both countries open to new approaches
  • Opportunity for a fresh start and a break from the past animosities under new administrations
• International pressure and incentives
  • Global powers like the U.S., EU, and China encouraging de-escalation and dialogue to stabilize the region
  • Economic and diplomatic rewards for progress towards normalization, such as investment deals and security guarantees
• Precedent for reconciliation
  • Historical examples of rapprochement between rival states, such as the U.S. and China in the 1970s
  • Potential for incremental confidence-building measures and gradual normalization of relations over time