14.3 Turkey's foreign policy shifts and regional ambitions

Turkey's foreign policy under the AKP has shifted dramatically. Moving away from a Western focus, Turkey now engages more with the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. This "zero problems with neighbors" approach aims to boost regional relations through diplomacy and soft power.

Turkey's new stance has positioned it as a potential model for Islamic democracy. By balancing secular governance with Islamic values, Turkey has increased its regional influence. However, this shift has strained relationships with traditional allies like the US and EU.

Turkey's Foreign Policy Shifts under the AKP

Key shifts in Turkey's foreign policy

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• Shifted from primarily Western-oriented foreign policy to multidimensional approach engaging with Middle East, Africa, and Asia
• Pursued "zero problems with neighbors" policy to improve regional relations
• Placed greater emphasis on soft power and diplomacy through mediation efforts in regional conflicts (Israel-Palestine) and promoting cultural and economic ties
• Took assertive stance on regional issues by supporting Palestinian rights and criticizing Israeli policies
• Gradually distanced from traditional allies leading to strained relations with United States and European Union over disagreements on regional policies and human rights concerns

Turkey's regional influence and leadership

• Positioned itself as model for Islamic democracy balancing secular governance with Islamic values and promoting economic development and modernization
• Actively involved in regional organizations as member of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and observer state in Arab League
• Engaged economically with Middle Eastern countries through expanded trade ties, infrastructure projects, and construction contracts
• Provided humanitarian and development assistance to conflict-affected areas by supporting Syrian refugees and providing aid to Palestine

Turkey's Regional Relationships and Implications

Turkey's relationships with neighbors

• Syria
  • Initially supported Syrian opposition groups during civil war
  • Hosted Syrian refugees and established safe zones
  • Experienced tensions over Kurdish militias and territorial disputes
• Iraq
  • Expressed concerns over autonomy of Iraqi Kurds
  • Maintained economic ties and energy cooperation
  • Balanced relations with central government and regional actors
• Israel
  • Diplomatic relations deteriorated after Gaza flotilla incident
  • Criticized Israeli policies towards Palestinians
  • Maintained limited economic and security cooperation despite political tensions

Implications for regional stability

• Potential for increased regional influence and leadership by shaping regional dynamics and mediating conflicts through soft power projection (cultural and economic ties)
• Challenges traditional power balances by shifting alliances and partnerships in Middle East and impacting role of external actors (United States, Russia)
• Risks overextension and unintended consequences through involvement in multiple regional conflicts and crises, potentially leading to backlash from neighboring countries and international community
• Implications for Turkey's domestic politics and stability as it balances foreign policy ambitions with internal challenges and impacts on democratic institutions and human rights record