15.4 Potential scenarios for regional cooperation and conflict resolution

The Middle East faces numerous obstacles to regional cooperation, including geopolitical rivalries, sectarian tensions, and external interventions. These challenges hinder collaboration and perpetuate instability. However, economic integration offers potential benefits, such as increased trade and reduced dependence on external actors.

International organizations play a crucial role in conflict resolution efforts, with the UN and regional bodies contributing to peace initiatives. Despite limitations, these efforts aim to address long-standing conflicts like the Israeli-Palestinian issue and the Syrian civil war, while promoting stability and cooperation in the region.

Obstacles and Opportunities for Regional Cooperation

Obstacles to Middle East cooperation

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• Geopolitical rivalries intensify regional power competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia, fueled by competing interests of external actors (United States, Russia, China)
• Sectarian tensions exacerbate the Sunni-Shia divide, further inflamed by regional conflicts and proxy wars, and intra-sectarian rivalries (Gulf Cooperation Council crisis)
• External interventions, such as military interventions by foreign powers (U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003) and economic sanctions and political pressure from international actors, destabilize the region
• Domestic political instability, characterized by weak state institutions, governance challenges, and the rise of non-state actors (terrorist groups, militias), hinders cooperation
• Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts, rooted in the legacy of colonialism, arbitrary border demarcation, persistent territorial disputes, and competing claims to resources, perpetuate tensions

Economic integration for regional stability

• Economic integration offers benefits, including increased trade and investment flows between Middle Eastern countries, reduced economic dependence on external actors and markets, and enhanced regional competitiveness and economies of scale
• Existing trade agreements and initiatives, such as the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA), Agadir Agreement (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia), and proposed Arab Customs Union and common market, provide frameworks for cooperation
• Challenges to economic integration persist, including political instability, security concerns, inadequate infrastructure, trade facilitation measures, and divergent economic policies and development strategies
• Potential sectors for regional cooperation include energy (renewable sources), agriculture and water management (resource scarcity), and tourism (cultural heritage, natural attractions)

Conflict Resolution and the Role of International Actors

Role of international organizations

• United Nations (UN) contributes to conflict resolution through Security Council resolutions, peacekeeping missions, and Special Coordinators and envoys for specific conflicts
• Regional organizations, such as the Arab League and its conflict mediation efforts, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and its role in promoting dialogue, play a part in fostering peace
• Multilateral diplomatic initiatives, including the Madrid Conference of 1991, Oslo Accords, Middle East Quartet (UN, U.S., EU, Russia) and the Roadmap for Peace, and P5+1 negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, seek to address conflicts
• Limitations of international involvement stem from competing interests and priorities of international actors, lack of enforcement mechanisms and political will, and perceptions of bias and double standards in conflict resolution efforts

Prospects for conflict resolution

• Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution hinges on the two-state solution and challenges of implementation, impact of Israeli settlements, status of Jerusalem, and the role of regional actors (Egypt, Jordan) in facilitating negotiations
• Syrian civil war, characterized by its complexity with multiple internal and external actors, humanitarian crisis, displacement of millions, holds potential for post-conflict reconstruction and political transition
• Implications for regional stability include spillover effects of conflicts on neighboring countries, radicalization and spread of extremist ideologies, and opportunities for regional cooperation in conflict prevention and peacebuilding
• Long-term challenges involve addressing root causes of conflicts (political and economic inequalities), promoting inclusive governance and democratic reforms, and fostering reconciliation and social cohesion in post-conflict societies