🐪Contemporary Middle East Politics Unit 9 – Iraq Wars and Their Consequences

Historical Context

• Iraq's history of political instability and authoritarian rule under Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party since 1968
• Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) left Iraq with significant debt and damaged infrastructure
  • Conflict began with Iraq's invasion of Iran, hoping to capitalize on Iran's post-revolutionary chaos
  • War ended in a stalemate with an estimated 1 million casualties
• Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons against Iranian forces and Kurdish civilians in Iraq (Halabja massacre)
• Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, claiming historical ownership and accusing Kuwait of slant-drilling into Iraqi oil fields
• International community's response to Iraq's aggression, leading to the First Gulf War
• Saddam Hussein's defiance of UN resolutions and international sanctions following the First Gulf War

Key Players and Motivations

• Saddam Hussein, Iraqi dictator, sought to maintain power and expand Iraq's regional influence
  • Motivated by pan-Arabism, nationalism, and a desire to dominate the Persian Gulf region
• United States, led by President George H.W. Bush (Gulf War) and President George W. Bush (Iraq War), aimed to protect allies and maintain regional stability
  • Concerned about Iraq's potential possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and links to terrorism
• United Nations Security Council played a crucial role in imposing sanctions and authorizing military action against Iraq
• Coalition forces, including the United Kingdom, France, and other nations, supported U.S.-led military operations
• Iran, a regional rival of Iraq, sought to limit Iraq's power and influence in the region
• Kurdish and Shia opposition groups in Iraq, who had been oppressed by Saddam Hussein's regime, saw an opportunity for change

First Gulf War (1990-1991)

• Iraq's invasion and annexation of Kuwait in August 1990, declared Kuwait as Iraq's 19th province
• UN Security Council Resolution 660 condemned the invasion and demanded Iraq's immediate withdrawal
• Operation Desert Shield, a U.S.-led coalition deployment to Saudi Arabia to deter further Iraqi aggression
• UN Security Council Resolution 678 authorized member states to use "all necessary means" to remove Iraq from Kuwait if it did not withdraw by January 15, 1991
• Operation Desert Storm, a 42-day air campaign followed by a 100-hour ground offensive, liberated Kuwait and forced Iraqi troops to retreat
• Iraq accepted a ceasefire on February 28, 1991, agreeing to UN terms and resolutions
• Establishment of no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq to protect Kurdish and Shia populations from Saddam Hussein's repression

Sanctions and No-Fly Zones

• Comprehensive economic sanctions imposed on Iraq by the UN Security Council (Resolution 661) following the invasion of Kuwait
  • Sanctions aimed to pressure Iraq to comply with UN resolutions and dismantle its weapons of mass destruction programs
• Oil-for-Food Programme (1995) allowed Iraq to sell oil to purchase humanitarian goods, but faced criticism for corruption and inadequacy in addressing the suffering of Iraqi civilians
• No-fly zones enforced by U.S., U.K., and France in northern Iraq (Operation Provide Comfort) and southern Iraq (Operation Southern Watch)
  • Aimed to protect Kurdish and Shia populations from Saddam Hussein's military operations
• Regular U.S. and coalition airstrikes against Iraqi military targets in response to violations of the no-fly zones and UN resolutions
• Sanctions and no-fly zones remained in place until the 2003 Iraq War, with debate over their effectiveness and humanitarian impact

Iraq War (2003-2011)

• U.S. and coalition forces launched a military invasion of Iraq in March 2003, based on claims of Iraq's possession of WMDs and links to terrorism
  • Claims later found to be based on flawed intelligence
• Initial phase of the war, known as "shock and awe," involved heavy aerial bombardment followed by a rapid ground offensive
• Coalition forces quickly overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime, with Baghdad falling in April 2003
• Saddam Hussein captured in December 2003, tried by an Iraqi court, and executed in 2006
• Post-invasion Iraq faced significant challenges, including sectarian violence, insurgency, and the emergence of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda in Iraq
• U.S. troop surge in 2007 (Operation Phantom Thunder) aimed to quell sectarian violence and stabilize the country
• U.S. combat operations officially ended in August 2010, with the last U.S. troops withdrawing in December 2011

Impact on Iraqi Society

• Breakdown of social order and infrastructure following the 2003 invasion, leading to widespread looting and chaos
• De-Ba'athification process, which removed members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party from positions of power, contributed to a power vacuum and sectarian tensions
  • Many Sunni Ba'athists later joined insurgent groups
• Sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia groups escalated, particularly after the 2006 bombing of the Al-Askari Mosque in Samarra
• Displacement and refugee crisis, with millions of Iraqis fleeing to neighboring countries or becoming internally displaced
• Human rights abuses committed by various actors, including U.S. forces (Abu Ghraib scandal), Iraqi security forces, and militias
• Challenges in rebuilding infrastructure, restoring essential services, and establishing a stable and inclusive political system

Regional Consequences

• Shift in the regional balance of power, with Iran gaining increased influence in Iraq and the region
  • Iran's support for Shia political parties and militias in Iraq
• Exacerbation of Sunni-Shia tensions across the Middle East, with the Iraq War seen as a proxy conflict between Sunni and Shia powers
• Strain on U.S. relations with regional allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, due to their concerns about growing Iranian influence
• Inspiration for terrorist groups and increased regional instability, with the Iraq War used as a recruiting tool and training ground for extremists
• Refugee crisis affecting neighboring countries, particularly Syria and Jordan, which hosted large numbers of Iraqi refugees

Global Implications

• Damage to U.S. credibility and international reputation, with the failure to find WMDs and the challenges of post-war reconstruction
• Debate over the legality and legitimacy of the Iraq War, as it lacked explicit UN Security Council authorization
• Increased global anti-Americanism and erosion of support for U.S. foreign policy
• Strain on U.S. military resources and budget, with long-term costs estimated in the trillions of dollars
• Lessons learned regarding the challenges of nation-building and the limitations of military force in addressing complex political and social issues
• Impact on the global oil market, with Iraq's oil production disrupted and concerns about the security of energy supplies
• Contribution to the global discourse on the responsibility to protect (R2P) and the criteria for military intervention in sovereign states