Mortality trends and have drastically improved globally since the 1900s. The average lifespan jumped from 30 to 70 years, thanks to better healthcare, living conditions, and public health measures. However, significant regional differences persist due to varying economic and social factors.
Understanding these trends is crucial for grasping population dynamics. The theory explains how societies shift from high mortality from infectious diseases to lower mortality from chronic conditions as they develop. This shift shapes demographic patterns and healthcare needs worldwide.
Mortality Trends and Life Expectancy
Global Improvements and Regional Variations
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Mortality rates and life expectancy improved significantly worldwide since early 20th century varied in pace and timing across regions and countries
Epidemiological transition theory explains shift from high mortality due to infectious diseases to lower mortality from chronic diseases as societies develop
Global average life expectancy increased from ~30 years in 1900 to over 70 years in 2020 substantial regional differences remain
Infant and child mortality rates declined dramatically in most parts of the world contributed significantly to overall life expectancy increases
Compression of mortality phenomenon describes concentration of deaths at older ages as life expectancy increases
Regional variations in mortality trends reflect differences in:
Economic development
Healthcare systems
Social conditions
National-level mortality trends often show periods of stagnation or reversal due to specific historical events:
Wars (World War II)
Epidemics (1918 influenza pandemic)
Economic crises (Great Depression)
Theoretical Frameworks and Demographic Concepts
Epidemiological transition theory stages:
Age of pestilence and famine
Age of receding pandemics
Age of degenerative and man-made diseases
Age of delayed degenerative diseases
Compression of mortality components:
Rectangularization of survival curve
Increase in modal age at death
Decrease in variability of age at death
Life expectancy calculation methods:
Period life expectancy: based on current mortality rates
Cohort life expectancy: follows actual birth cohorts over time
Mortality measures:
Crude death rate: CDR=Mid-year populationNumber of deaths in a year×1000
rate: ASMR=Population in age groupNumber of deaths in age group×1000
: SMR=Expected deathsObserved deaths×100
Factors Influencing Mortality Decline
Medical and Public Health Advancements
Medical knowledge and technology advancements reduced mortality from infectious diseases and other health conditions: