1.5 Hegemonic stability theory

Hegemonic stability theory examines how dominant powers shape international order. It argues that a single hegemon is crucial for maintaining global stability through economic and military might. The theory explores how hegemons provide public goods, promote free trade, and create institutions that benefit all states.

The theory also considers the rise and fall of hegemons, suggesting that international history follows long cycles of hegemonic transition. It analyzes challenges to hegemonic power, the role of multilateral institutions, and criticisms of the theory's assumptions about state behavior and cooperation.

Origins of hegemonic stability theory

• Emerged in the 1970s as a framework for understanding the role of dominant powers in shaping international order
• Developed by scholars such as Charles Kindleberger and Robert Gilpin who sought to explain the stability of the post-World War II era
• Draws on insights from political economy and international relations theory to analyze the relationship between hegemonic power and international stability

Key assumptions

Hegemony and international order

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• Hegemonic stability theory posits that the presence of a single dominant power is necessary for maintaining international order and stability
• Hegemons use their preponderant economic and military capabilities to establish and enforce the rules and norms of the international system
• Without a hegemon, the theory suggests that the international system is prone to instability, conflict, and economic protectionism

Economic vs security dimensions

• Hegemonic stability theory distinguishes between the economic and security dimensions of hegemonic power
• In the economic realm, hegemons promote an open and liberal international economic order based on free trade and the free flow of capital
• In the security realm, hegemons provide global public goods such as freedom of navigation and regional stability by acting as a security guarantor and balancer

Hegemonic leadership and public goods

• Hegemons are seen as benevolent actors that use their power to provide public goods that benefit all states in the international system
• Public goods include things like a stable international monetary system, open markets for trade, and security from external threats
• By providing these public goods, hegemons help to create a stable and prosperous international order that benefits all states, not just the hegemon itself

Rise and fall of hegemons

Long cycles of hegemonic transition

• Hegemonic stability theory suggests that international history is characterized by long cycles of hegemonic rise and decline
• These cycles typically last around 100-150 years and involve the emergence of a new hegemon that establishes a new international order (Pax Britannica in the 19th century, Pax Americana in the 20th century)
• Over time, the hegemon's relative power begins to decline as other states catch up economically and militarily, leading to a period of hegemonic transition and potential instability

Challengers to hegemonic power

• As hegemons decline, they face challenges from rising powers that seek to revise the existing international order in their favor
• These challengers may seek to establish alternative institutions and norms that challenge the hegemon's leadership and vision for the international system
• Examples of challengers to hegemonic power include Germany in the early 20th century and the Soviet Union during the Cold War

Hegemonic stability and liberal international order

Free trade and economic openness

• Hegemonic stability theory is closely associated with the promotion of free trade and economic openness
• Hegemons use their economic power to create an open international economic order that benefits all states by reducing barriers to trade and investment
• This includes the creation of institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the promotion of trade agreements like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)

Multilateral institutions and cooperation

• Hegemons also use their power to create and maintain multilateral institutions that facilitate cooperation among states
• These institutions, such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), help to manage common challenges and provide a forum for states to resolve disputes peacefully
• By investing in these institutions, hegemons help to create a more stable and predictable international order

Hegemonic provision of global security

• In addition to their economic role, hegemons also provide security public goods that benefit all states in the international system
• This includes maintaining regional stability, deterring aggression, and providing humanitarian assistance in times of crisis
• Examples of hegemonic security provision include the US role in maintaining freedom of navigation in key maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Taiwan Strait

Limitations and criticisms

Assumptions about state behavior

• Critics argue that hegemonic stability theory makes overly simplistic assumptions about state behavior and the nature of international politics
• The theory assumes that states are rational actors that prioritize economic gains and are willing to cooperate under hegemonic leadership
• In reality, states may pursue other goals such as prestige or ideology, and may resist hegemonic domination even if it comes with economic benefits

Neglect of non-hegemonic cooperation

• Hegemonic stability theory has been criticized for neglecting the role of non-hegemonic cooperation in maintaining international order
• Critics point out that states can and do cooperate in the absence of hegemonic leadership, as evidenced by the growth of regional trade agreements and security organizations
• The theory may overstate the importance of hegemonic power and underestimate the ability of other states to shape the international system

Challenges to liberal order

• The liberal international order that hegemonic stability theory seeks to explain has faced significant challenges in recent years
• The rise of populist and nationalist movements in many countries has led to increased skepticism of free trade, multilateralism, and globalization
• The theory may not adequately account for these challenges or provide guidance on how to adapt the liberal order to new political realities

Contemporary relevance

US hegemony in 21st century

• The United States has been the dominant global hegemon since the end of World War II, but its relative power has declined in recent decades
• The US faces economic challenges from the rise of China and other emerging economies, as well as political challenges to its leadership of the liberal international order
• Hegemonic stability theory provides a framework for understanding the US role in the world and the potential consequences of its relative decline

Rise of China as potential challenger

• China's rapid economic growth and expanding military capabilities have led many observers to view it as a potential challenger to US hegemony
• China has sought to establish alternative institutions and norms, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
• The theory suggests that the rise of China could lead to a period of hegemonic transition and potential instability in the international system

Future of liberal international order

• The future of the liberal international order that has been underpinned by US hegemony remains uncertain
• Some argue that the order can be maintained through a renewed commitment to multilateralism and cooperation among like-minded states
• Others suggest that the order may need to be adapted to accommodate the rise of new powers and the changing nature of global challenges such as climate change and technological disruption
• Hegemonic stability theory provides a useful starting point for analyzing these questions and considering the role of hegemonic power in shaping the future of the international system