13.3 Proxy conflicts and regional power struggles

Iran and Saudi Arabia's rivalry shapes Middle Eastern politics through proxy conflicts. From Yemen to Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, both nations support opposing factions, fueling regional instability and humanitarian crises.

This competition stems from sectarian differences, geopolitical ambitions, and economic interests. External actors like the US, Russia, and Israel further complicate the power dynamics, influencing alliances and escalating tensions in the region.

Iran-Saudi Arabia Proxy Conflicts

Proxy conflicts of Iran and Saudi Arabia

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  Pressenza - Yemen – Hadi issued (2013) twenty points View original

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• Yemen Civil War involves Iran supporting Houthi rebels while Saudi Arabia leads a coalition backing the Yemeni government
• Syrian Civil War has Iran providing military advisors, weapons, and financial aid to the Assad regime as Saudi Arabia supports various opposition groups
• In Iraq, Iran supports the Shia-dominated government and militias whereas Saudi Arabia has sought to counter Iranian influence
• Lebanon sees Iran supporting Hezbollah, a powerful Shia political and military organization (provides weapons and funding) while Saudi Arabia supports Sunni political factions (Future Movement)

Motivations for regional involvement

• Sectarian rivalry drives Iran to support Shia populations and groups (Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon) as Saudi Arabia aims to maintain Sunni dominance (backing Sunni opposition in Syria)
• Geopolitical competition for regional hegemony and influence fuels proxy conflicts (control over strategic locations like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait)
• Ideological differences between Iran's revolutionary Islamic ideology and Saudi Arabia's conservative Wahhabism exacerbate tensions (promoting competing visions of Islamic governance)
• Economic interests, particularly control over oil resources and trade routes (Persian Gulf shipping lanes), motivate regional involvement

Impact of proxy wars on power balance

• Increased regional instability and fragmentation result from prolonged conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq that weaken central governments and give rise to non-state actors (Houthis, ISIS)
• Shifting alliances and power dynamics occur as Iran expands influence through support for Shia groups while Saudi Arabia attempts to counter Iran and maintain Sunni Arab unity (formation of Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition)
• Humanitarian crises and refugee flows stem from civilian casualties, displacement, and economic devastation (13 million people facing starvation in Yemen)
• Heightened risk of direct confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia raises concerns of a broader regional war (Abqaiq–Khurais attack in 2019)

External Actors in Regional Tensions

Role of external actors in tensions

• The United States has historically supported Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states (arms sales, military bases) while it withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran, seeking to balance Iranian influence while avoiding direct conflict
• Russia supports the Assad regime in Syria, aligning with Iran, as it pursues economic and military interests in the region (naval facility in Tartus) and exploits tensions to expand its influence and challenge US dominance
• The European Union seeks to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and engage diplomatically, balancing relations with Iran and Gulf states while prioritizing stability and conflict resolution (INSTEX trade mechanism)
• Israel views Iran as a major threat and conducts covert operations against Iranian targets (Stuxnet cyberattack), aligning with Saudi Arabia in countering Iranian influence and engaging in proxy conflicts, particularly in Syria and Lebanon (airstrikes against Iranian-backed forces)