15.2 Climate change and resource scarcity in the Middle East

The Middle East faces severe environmental challenges, including water scarcity, desertification, and rising temperatures. These issues threaten agriculture, food security, and economic development in the region, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and straining resources.

Climate change impacts are driving resource conflicts and regional instability. Water disputes, land competition, and resource scarcity fuel tensions between countries and communities. Addressing these challenges requires cooperation, local initiatives, and capacity building to develop sustainable solutions.

Environmental Challenges in the Middle East

Environmental challenges in Middle East

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• Water scarcity
  • Limited freshwater resources due to arid and semi-arid climate conditions (deserts, low rainfall)
  • Overexploitation of groundwater aquifers leads to depletion and salinization (Saudi Arabia, Yemen)
  • Inadequate water management infrastructure results in high water losses and inefficient distribution (leaky pipes, outdated irrigation systems)
• Desertification
  • Land degradation caused by overgrazing of livestock, deforestation for fuelwood, and unsustainable agricultural practices (monoculture, excessive tillage)
  • Expansion of desert areas encroaches on fertile lands and reduces biodiversity (Sahara, Arabian Desert)
  • Loss of arable land decreases agricultural productivity and food security (Syria, Iraq)
• Rising temperatures
  • Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves lead to heat stress and health risks (heat stroke, dehydration)
  • Exacerbation of drought conditions reduces water availability and crop yields (prolonged dry spells, erratic rainfall patterns)
  • Impacts on human health and productivity, particularly for outdoor workers and vulnerable populations (elderly, children)

Climate Change Impacts and Resource-Driven Conflicts

Climate change impacts on development

• Agriculture
  • Reduced crop yields due to increased temperatures and water stress (wheat, barley, vegetables)
  • Shifts in growing seasons and crop suitability alter traditional farming practices and livelihoods (delayed planting, shorter growing periods)
  • Increased risk of crop failures and livestock losses from extreme weather events (droughts, floods, heatwaves)
• Food security
  • Heightened vulnerability to food shortages and price volatility as local production declines (supply disruptions, market instability)
  • Increased dependence on food imports strains national budgets and exposes countries to global market fluctuations (Egypt, Yemen)
  • Disproportionate impacts on low-income and rural populations who rely on subsistence agriculture and have limited coping mechanisms (smallholder farmers, pastoralists)
• Economic development
  • Reduced agricultural productivity and income lead to rural poverty and migration to urban areas (loss of livelihoods, rural-urban divide)
  • Increased costs of adaptation and infrastructure development burden already strained national budgets (desalination plants, irrigation networks)
  • Potential for economic instability and social unrest as climate impacts exacerbate existing inequalities and grievances (unemployment, marginalization)

Resource conflicts and regional stability

• Water disputes
  • Transboundary water sharing conflicts arise over shared rivers and aquifers (Nile River between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia; Tigris-Euphrates basin between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq)
  • Intra-state competition for limited water resources fuels tensions between different user groups (farmers vs. urban residents, upstream vs. downstream communities)
  • Potential for water-related political tensions and instability as countries seek to secure their water supplies (dam construction, unilateral water withdrawals)
• Land and resource competition
  • Conflicts between pastoralists and farmers over land use and access intensify as grazing lands shrink and agricultural encroachment increases (Bedouin communities, nomadic herders)
  • Displacement of communities due to environmental degradation and resource scarcity leads to migration and potential conflicts with host communities (climate refugees, internally displaced persons)
  • Increased risk of social unrest and political instability as resource competition intersects with existing ethnic, religious, or political fault lines (Yemen, Syria)

Addressing Climate Change and Resource Scarcity

Cooperation for environmental solutions

• International cooperation
  • Regional climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies promote coordinated action and knowledge sharing (Arab Climate Resilience Initiative, Middle East and North Africa Regional Climate Center)
  • Collaborative water management and sharing agreements foster equitable and sustainable use of shared water resources (Nile Basin Initiative, Jordan-Israel water agreement)
  • Technical and financial support from international organizations and donor countries helps build capacity and implement projects (Green Climate Fund, United Nations Development Programme)
• Local initiatives
  • Community-based adaptation projects empower local communities to develop context-specific solutions (water harvesting in Jordan, drought-resistant crops in Palestine)
  • Sustainable land management practices restore degraded lands and enhance ecosystem services (agroforestry in Lebanon, soil conservation in Tunisia)
  • Renewable energy development and energy efficiency measures reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy security (solar power in Morocco, wind energy in Egypt)
• Capacity building and knowledge sharing
  • Strengthening institutional and technical capacities for climate change adaptation improves decision-making and resource management (training programs, data collection and analysis)
  • Promoting public awareness and education on environmental issues fosters behavior change and stakeholder engagement (school curricula, media campaigns)
  • Encouraging stakeholder participation and local ownership of solutions ensures sustainability and relevance of interventions (community-driven projects, participatory planning processes)