2.3 Evolution of scenario planning techniques

Scenario planning techniques have evolved significantly since their inception. From Shell's pioneering work in the 1970s to RAND's military strategies, these methods have shaped how organizations prepare for the future. The development of analytical tools and diverse scenario types has further enhanced foresight capabilities.

Today, scenario planning incorporates a wide range of approaches. From morphological analysis to causal layered analysis, these techniques help organizations explore complex futures systematically. Different scenario types, like wild cards and normative scenarios, allow for comprehensive strategic planning in an uncertain world.

Early Pioneers

Shell's Groundbreaking Approach

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• Shell Oil Company pioneered scenario planning in the 1970s under Pierre Wack's leadership
• Developed multiple plausible future scenarios to prepare for oil price fluctuations
• Utilized scenarios to anticipate the 1973 oil crisis, giving Shell a competitive advantage
• Focused on identifying key uncertainties and driving forces in the business environment
• Incorporated both quantitative data and qualitative insights into scenario development

RAND Corporation's Contributions

• RAND Corporation introduced scenario planning techniques in the 1950s for military strategy
• Developed the Delphi method to gather expert opinions and forecast technological developments
• Created simulations and war games to explore potential conflict scenarios
• Emphasized systems thinking and interdisciplinary approaches in scenario development
• Influenced government policy and decision-making through long-term strategic planning

Global Business Network's Collaborative Approach

• Founded in 1987 by Peter Schwartz and other scenario planning experts
• Popularized scenario planning in the corporate world beyond the energy sector
• Introduced the concept of "remarkable people" to bring diverse perspectives into scenario development
• Developed the "2x2 matrix" method for creating scenario frameworks (uses two critical uncertainties)
• Emphasized storytelling and narrative techniques to make scenarios more engaging and memorable

Analytical Techniques

Morphological Analysis for Systematic Exploration

• Developed by Fritz Zwicky in the 1960s for technological forecasting
• Breaks down complex problems into key dimensions and possible states
• Creates a morphological field to explore all possible combinations systematically
• Helps identify novel solutions and unexpected relationships between variables
• Used in fields such as product development, policy analysis, and strategic planning

Causal Layered Analysis for Deep Understanding

• Developed by Sohail Inayatullah in the 1990s as a critical futures studies method
• Examines issues at four levels: litany, systemic causes, worldview, and myth/metaphor
• Moves beyond surface-level trends to explore deeper cultural and societal structures
• Encourages consideration of alternative perspectives and cultural narratives
• Useful for challenging assumptions and creating transformative scenarios

Backcasting for Goal-Oriented Planning

• Starts with a desired future state and works backward to identify necessary steps
• Contrasts with forecasting, which projects current trends into the future
• Helps overcome "path dependence" and encourages creative problem-solving
• Often used in sustainability planning and long-term policy development
• Involves stakeholder engagement to define desirable futures and implementation pathways

Scenario Types

Wild Cards: Preparing for the Unexpected

• Low-probability, high-impact events that can dramatically alter the future
• Often overlooked in traditional planning but crucial for robust strategy development
• Can be natural (massive earthquakes) or human-caused (technological breakthroughs)
• Helps organizations develop adaptive capacity and resilience
• Encourages consideration of both positive and negative disruptive events

Normative Scenarios: Shaping Preferred Futures

• Focus on desirable future states and how to achieve them
• Often used in policy planning and organizational visioning exercises
• Incorporate values, goals, and aspirations of stakeholders
• Can be used to build consensus and motivate action towards shared objectives
• Combine elements of forecasting and backcasting to create actionable strategies

Exploratory Scenarios: Mapping Possible Futures

• Examine a range of plausible futures based on current trends and uncertainties
• Do not predict a single outcome but explore multiple potential pathways
• Often use a set of 3-5 distinct scenarios to cover a wide range of possibilities
• Help organizations prepare for different future environments and contingencies
• Can be qualitative (narrative-based) or quantitative (model-based) or a combination of both