23.3 Evolving relations with Russia

Russia's relationship with Europe shifted dramatically after the Cold War. NATO and the EU sought cooperation, establishing councils and agreements to foster dialogue and economic ties. However, challenges arose as NATO expanded eastward and energy politics complicated matters.

Regional tensions simmered as frozen conflicts persisted in post-Soviet states. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked a turning point, leading to sanctions and strained relations. The EU's Eastern Partnership initiative further complicated the geopolitical landscape.

Post-Cold War Cooperation

NATO-Russia Collaboration and Energy Politics

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• NATO-Russia Council established in 2002 fostered dialogue and cooperation on security issues
• Council facilitated joint military exercises and counterterrorism efforts between NATO and Russia
• EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement signed in 1997 promoted economic and political ties
• Agreement covered trade, investment, and cultural exchanges between EU member states and Russia
• Energy politics played crucial role in EU-Russia relations due to Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas
• Nord Stream pipeline project exemplified complex energy relationship between Russia and European countries

Challenges to Cooperation

• NATO expansion into former Soviet bloc countries strained relations with Russia
• Russia viewed NATO enlargement as threat to its security interests in Eastern Europe
• Disagreements over missile defense systems in Europe created tensions between NATO and Russia
• Energy disputes, such as gas supply disruptions to Ukraine, affected EU-Russia relations
• Diverging views on global issues (Syria conflict, Iran nuclear deal) hindered cooperation efforts
• Economic sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia in 2014 further complicated bilateral relations

Regional Tensions

Frozen Conflicts and Russian Influence

• Frozen conflicts in post-Soviet states remained unresolved, contributing to regional instability
• Transnistria conflict in Moldova persisted since 1992, with Russian peacekeeping forces present
• South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts in Georgia escalated into 2008 Russo-Georgian War
• Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan periodically flared up despite ceasefires
• Russia's near abroad policy asserted influence over former Soviet republics
• Policy aimed to maintain Russian economic and political dominance in the region
• Russian support for separatist movements in neighboring countries (South Ossetia, Abkhazia) exemplified near abroad strategy

Crimea Annexation and Eastern Partnership

• Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, triggering international condemnation
• Annexation violated Ukraine's territorial integrity and international law
• Conflict in eastern Ukraine (Donbas region) erupted following Crimea annexation
• Russian support for separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk prolonged the conflict
• EU's Eastern Partnership initiative launched in 2009 to strengthen ties with six post-Soviet states
• Initiative aimed to promote political and economic reforms in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine
• Russia viewed Eastern Partnership as attempt to diminish its influence in the region

Confrontational Policies

Sanctions Regime and Economic Impacts

• EU and US imposed economic sanctions on Russia following Crimea annexation
• Sanctions targeted key sectors of Russian economy (energy, finance, defense)
• Asset freezes and travel bans implemented against Russian officials and entities
• Russia responded with counter-sanctions, banning food imports from EU and US
• Sanctions regime contributed to economic downturn in Russia and strained EU-Russia trade relations
• Debate over effectiveness of sanctions in changing Russian foreign policy persisted

Hybrid Warfare and Information Campaigns

• Hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia combined conventional and unconventional methods
• Cyber attacks on Estonian government websites in 2007 attributed to Russian hackers
• Disinformation campaigns aimed to influence public opinion and political processes in Western countries
• Russian state-sponsored media outlets (RT, Sputnik) accused of spreading propaganda
• Alleged Russian interference in 2016 US presidential election heightened concerns about hybrid threats
• NATO and EU developed strategies to counter hybrid warfare and improve resilience

Putin's Russia and Assertive Foreign Policy

• Vladimir Putin's leadership marked shift towards more assertive Russian foreign policy
• Putin's Munich Security Conference speech in 2007 signaled challenge to US-led global order
• Emphasis on restoring Russia's great power status and protecting Russian-speaking populations abroad
• Increased military modernization and defense spending under Putin's presidency
• Russia's intervention in Syrian civil war in 2015 demonstrated willingness to project power globally
• Tensions with the West escalated over issues such as NATO expansion, missile defense, and human rights