4.3 Climate change and its influence on natural disasters

Climate change is reshaping our world, making natural disasters more frequent and intense. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and sea-level rise are fueling stronger hurricanes, worse floods, and longer droughts. These changes are putting communities at greater risk.

Adapting to this new reality requires action on multiple fronts. We need better early warning systems, smarter land-use planning, and more resilient infrastructure. At the same time, cutting greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to limit future warming and its impacts on disasters.

Climate Change and Natural Disasters

Scientific Basis of Climate Change

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• Climate change refers to long-term shifts in global or regional climate patterns, primarily attributed to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels
• The Earth's climate is influenced by a variety of factors
  • Variations in solar radiation
  • Changes in the Earth's orbit
  • Volcanic eruptions
  • Human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes
• The greenhouse effect is a natural process that warms the Earth's surface, but human activities have significantly increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to enhanced warming

Potential Impacts on Natural Disasters

• Rising global temperatures can lead to changes in
  • Precipitation patterns
  • Sea-level rise
  • More frequent and intense extreme weather events (heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall)
• Climate change can alter the frequency, intensity, and distribution of natural disasters by
  • Influencing the underlying physical processes that drive these events (atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns)
  • Exacerbating the conditions that make certain regions more vulnerable to disasters

Climate Change Impacts on Disasters

Hurricanes

• Warmer ocean temperatures provide more energy for hurricane formation and intensification, potentially leading to more frequent and severe storms
• Rising sea levels can exacerbate storm surge and coastal flooding associated with hurricanes
• Examples
  • Hurricane Harvey (2017) intensified rapidly over unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico
  • Sea-level rise contributed to the extensive flooding caused by Hurricane Sandy (2012) in the northeastern United States

Floods and Droughts

• Changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change can increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, leading to more severe riverine and flash flooding
• Sea-level rise can contribute to increased coastal flooding during storm events
• Climate change can alter precipitation patterns and increase evaporation rates, leading to more frequent, severe, and prolonged droughts in some regions
• Droughts can have cascading impacts on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem health
• Examples
  • The 2021 European floods, particularly affecting Germany and Belgium, were linked to extreme rainfall events exacerbated by climate change
  • The 2011-2017 California drought, one of the most severe in the state's history, was influenced by higher temperatures and reduced precipitation associated with climate change

Wildfires

• Higher temperatures, reduced precipitation, and increased evaporation can create more favorable conditions for wildfire ignition and spread
• Climate change can alter vegetation patterns and fuel loads, further influencing wildfire behavior and severity
• Examples
  • The 2019-2020 Australian bushfires, which burned an unprecedented area, were fueled by record-breaking temperatures and prolonged drought conditions
  • The 2018 California wildfires, including the devastating Camp Fire, occurred during a period of extremely low humidity and strong winds, conditions that are becoming more common due to climate change

Regional Variations and Complexity

• The relationship between climate change and natural disasters is complex and varies by region
  • Some areas may experience increased risk for certain types of disasters
  • Other areas may see reduced risk for certain types of disasters

Adapting to Climate Change and Disasters

Adaptation Strategies

• Adaptation involves adjusting to the actual or expected impacts of climate change
• Opportunities for adaptation include
  • Development of early warning systems
  • Improved land-use planning and building codes
  • Investment in resilient infrastructure
  • Restoration of natural ecosystems that provide protective services
• Examples
  • The Netherlands' Delta Works, a series of dams, sluices, and storm surge barriers, protect against sea-level rise and coastal flooding
  • Green roofs and urban green spaces help mitigate the urban heat island effect and manage stormwater runoff in cities

Mitigation Efforts

• Mitigation focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit future warming and associated impacts
• Mitigation opportunities include
  • Deployment of renewable energy technologies (solar, wind)
  • Improvements in energy efficiency
  • Development of carbon capture and storage techniques
  • Promotion of sustainable land-use practices that enhance carbon sequestration
• Examples
  • The rapid growth of solar and wind power globally, with many countries setting ambitious renewable energy targets
  • Reforestation and afforestation projects, such as China's Grain for Green program, which aims to restore degraded land and increase forest cover

Challenges and Integration

• Challenges for adaptation include
  • Uncertainty in projecting future climate conditions and disaster risks
  • Need for significant financial resources and technical capacity
  • Potential for maladaptation if measures are not well-designed or have unintended consequences
• Mitigation challenges include
  • Need for global cooperation and political will to reduce emissions
  • Potential economic costs of transitioning to low-carbon energy sources
  • Inertia of existing infrastructure and systems
• Effective adaptation and mitigation strategies require a combination of
  • Technological solutions
  • Policy frameworks
  • Behavioral changes at individual, community, and societal levels

International Cooperation for Disaster Risk Reduction

Global Frameworks and Agreements

• Climate change and natural disasters are global challenges that require coordinated international responses and cooperation among nations, as the impacts and solutions often transcend national boundaries
• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the primary international treaty for addressing climate change
  • The Paris Agreement sets goals for limiting global warming and promoting adaptation and mitigation efforts
• The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 is a global agreement that aims to substantially reduce disaster risk and losses, emphasizing
  • Understanding risk
  • Strengthening governance
  • Investing in resilience
  • Enhancing preparedness and response

Scientific Bodies and Financial Mechanisms

• International scientific bodies, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), play a crucial role in
  • Assessing the latest scientific, technical, and socio-economic information related to climate change and its impacts
  • Informing policy decisions at national and international levels
• International financial mechanisms provide support for developing countries to undertake adaptation and mitigation projects and build capacity for addressing climate change and disaster risks
  • Green Climate Fund
  • Global Environment Facility

Regional and Bilateral Initiatives

• Regional and bilateral cooperation initiatives can complement global efforts by fostering collaboration, knowledge sharing, and targeted actions among specific groups of countries
• Examples
  • European Union's Climate Adaptation Strategy
  • U.S.-China Joint Agreement on Climate Change

Equity and Differentiated Responsibilities

• Effective international cooperation requires the recognition of common but differentiated responsibilities
  • Taking into account the varying capacities and historical contributions of different nations to climate change
  • Ensuring equitable access to resources and support for adaptation and mitigation efforts