6.4 Current status of the conflict and prospects for resolution

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a complex issue with ongoing challenges. Israeli settlement expansion in occupied territories violates international law and hinders peace efforts. Meanwhile, political divisions among Palestinians complicate negotiations, making a unified approach difficult.

International mediation efforts face obstacles due to divergent interests and resistance from both sides. Alternative solutions like a one-state model or confederation have been proposed, but face significant hurdles given current political realities and entrenched positions.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Current Status and Prospects for Resolution

Impact of Israeli settlement expansion

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• Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank and East Jerusalem violates international law
• Expansion creates a major obstacle to establishing a contiguous and viable Palestinian state
• Fragments the West Bank complicates defining borders and dividing land (e.g., Israeli settlements in Area C)
• Increases tensions between Israelis and Palestinians undermines trust and cooperation
• Diminishes the likelihood of a negotiated two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders

Role of international mediation

• United States historically a key mediator provides substantial aid to Israel
  • Facilitated peace negotiations (Oslo Accords, Camp David Summit)
  • Recent administrations have shown varying levels of engagement and support for two-state solution
• European Union supports two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders
  • Provides financial assistance to Palestinian Authority and humanitarian aid
  • Criticizes Israeli settlements and human rights violations
  • Encourages peaceful dialogue and negotiations between the parties
• Challenges faced by international community in mediation efforts
  • Divergent interests and priorities among nations limits ability to enforce decisions
  • Resistance from Israelis and Palestinians to external intervention

Palestinian political division

• Political division between Palestinian Authority (PA) in West Bank and Hamas in Gaza Strip
  • PA led by Fatah, recognized internationally; Hamas considered terrorist organization by many
  • Division emerged after Hamas's 2006 election victory and subsequent 2007 conflict
• Implications for a unified Palestinian negotiating position
  • Lack of single, representative Palestinian leadership weakens bargaining power
  • Internal rivalry and lack of coordination hinder development of coherent strategy
  • Israel and international community reluctant to engage Hamas, limiting scope of negotiations
  • Reconciliation efforts between PA and Hamas have faced challenges and setbacks (e.g., failed unity governments)

Alternative conflict resolution approaches

• One-state solution proposes a single, binational state with equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians
  • Challenges: overcoming deep-rooted mistrust, ensuring equal representation, addressing Palestinian right of return
  • Concerns about potential loss of Israel's Jewish character and feasibility of integrating populations with distinct national aspirations
• Confederation model envisions two independent states with shared institutions and joint decision-making
  • Allows greater autonomy and self-determination compared to one-state solution
  • Challenges: defining scope and structure of shared institutions, ensuring equitable power-sharing, managing disputes
• Feasibility given current political realities
  • Entrenched positions and lack of trust between Israelis and Palestinians
  • Continued Israeli settlement expansion and fragmentation of Palestinian territories
  • Internal political divisions within Israeli and Palestinian societies (e.g., rise of right-wing parties in Israel)
  • Reduced international attention and shifting priorities in the region
  • Absence of strong, unified Palestinian leadership capable of engaging in meaningful negotiations