7.3 Availability cascade

Memory and recall biases can significantly impact our decision-making. The availability cascade is a powerful cognitive bias that shapes public perception through repetition and social reinforcement. It can lead to widespread misperceptions and irrational behaviors.

In business, availability cascades can cause severe reputational damage and create crisis management challenges. Companies must be prepared to navigate these situations effectively, using proactive strategies and transparent communication to counter misinformation and maintain stakeholder trust.

Availability Cascade: Shaping Perception

Understanding Availability Cascades

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• An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle that amplifies public perception of the frequency, probability, or plausibility of a narrative through its increasing repetition in public discourse
• Availability cascades are driven by two key components:
  • Informational component, where people start to believe something is true because many others seem to believe it
  • Reputational component, where people feel social pressure to conform to what others appear to believe
• The more a particular narrative is repeated in the media and public discussions, the more accessible and plausible it begins to seem in people's minds, regardless of its underlying accuracy or validity (fake news, urban legends)
• Availability cascades can lead to widespread misperceptions, exaggerated fears, and irrational behaviors as people make judgments based on the most vivid, emotionally resonant, or frequently repeated information rather than objective facts

Examples of Availability Cascades

• Moral panics (Satanic ritual abuse, stranger danger)
  • Widespread fear and outrage over perceived threats to social order or values, often based on exaggerated or fabricated claims
  • Can lead to overreaction, rushed legislation, and scapegoating of certain groups
• Health scares (vaccine autism link, MSG, gluten-free diets)
  • Rapid spread of misinformation about health risks associated with certain products, ingredients, or behaviors
  • Can cause people to avoid beneficial treatments or make unnecessary lifestyle changes
• Political narratives (birtherism, QAnon conspiracy theories)
  • False or misleading stories that gain traction and shape public opinion despite limited or contrary evidence
  • Can polarize the electorate, undermine trust in institutions, and influence election outcomes

Availability Cascade: Impact on Business

Reputational Damage

• Availability cascades can rapidly damage a company's reputation if negative narratives or accusations against the business gain widespread traction in public discourse and media coverage
• Even if a company is not directly responsible for a problem, an availability cascade can create the perception that it is guilty or negligent, putting pressure on the business to respond and take corrective action (Chipotle E. coli outbreak, Samsung Galaxy Note 7 battery fires)
• Availability cascades can lead to exaggerated perceptions of the risks or harms associated with a company's products, services, or practices, potentially triggering boycotts, regulatory scrutiny, or legal action

Crisis Management Challenges

• In a crisis situation, an availability cascade of misinformation or speculation can quickly spiral out of control, making it difficult for a company to communicate its perspective and maintain stakeholder trust
• Companies need to proactively monitor and address emerging availability cascades that could threaten their reputation, using clear and consistent messaging to counter misinformation and provide stakeholders with accurate, reliable information
• Responding too slowly or ineffectively to an availability cascade can allow false narratives to take hold and cause lasting damage to a company's brand and bottom line (United Airlines passenger removal incident, BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill)

Navigating Availability Cascades in Business

Proactive Preparation

• Companies should have a crisis communication plan in place that anticipates potential availability cascades and outlines key messages, spokespeople, and response protocols to mitigate reputational damage
• Cultivating a reservoir of goodwill and trust among stakeholders through ongoing engagement, social responsibility, and ethical practices can help a company weather an availability cascade and maintain the benefit of the doubt during a crisis
• Regularly monitoring social media, news coverage, and public sentiment can help companies detect and respond to emerging availability cascades before they spiral out of control

Effective Response Strategies

• Businesses need to quickly and decisively address the underlying concerns or accusations fueling an availability cascade, using facts and evidence to counter misinformation and provide a credible alternative narrative
• Transparency and authenticity are critical in responding to availability cascades; companies should acknowledge legitimate issues, take responsibility for mistakes, and communicate the concrete steps they are taking to address problems
• In some cases, it may be necessary to enlist credible third-party experts, influencers, or allies to help counter an availability cascade and lend credibility to the company's perspective (industry associations, academic researchers, consumer advocates)
• Consistent messaging across all channels and spokespeople is essential to avoid confusion or contradictions that could further fuel an availability cascade

Post-Crisis Assessment

• After an availability cascade subsides, companies should conduct a thorough post-crisis assessment to identify lessons learned, strengthen vulnerabilities, and improve their ability to prevent and respond to future cascades
• This assessment should include an analysis of the factors that contributed to the availability cascade, the effectiveness of the company's response, and the long-term impact on stakeholder perceptions and business outcomes
• Based on this assessment, companies can update their crisis communication plans, invest in proactive reputation management, and foster a culture of transparency and accountability to build resilience against future availability cascades