7.2 The Lebanese Civil War: causes, dynamics, and resolution

The Lebanese Civil War, a complex and devastating conflict, erupted from a perfect storm of sectarian tensions, demographic shifts, and socioeconomic disparities. These internal factors, combined with external influences from regional powers, created a volatile situation that tore the country apart for 15 years.

The war's impact on Lebanon was profound, weakening state institutions, disrupting social fabric, and devastating the economy. The Taif Agreement ended the conflict but failed to address root causes, perpetuating sectarianism and allowing continued foreign influence in Lebanese affairs.

The Lebanese Civil War: Causes and Dynamics

Factors of Lebanese Civil War outbreak

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• Sectarian tensions arose from unequal distribution of power among religious groups
  • Maronite Christians dominated the political system while Muslims, particularly Shia, were underrepresented and marginalized leading to growing resentment and calls for reform
• Demographic changes exacerbated existing tensions
  • Rapid population growth, especially among the Muslim population, altered the delicate balance of power
  • Influx of Palestinian refugees after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War and 1967 Six-Day War further strained resources and heightened sectarian divisions
• Socio-economic disparities fueled discontent
  • Uneven economic development and wealth distribution created a widening gap between the rich and poor
  • Marginalized communities, particularly in rural areas and urban slums, felt left behind by the country's growth
• Political instability created a power vacuum
  • Weak central government was unable to effectively address grievances and mediate conflicts
  • Failure of the National Pact, which outlined the confessional system, to adapt to changing demographics and power dynamics eroded its legitimacy
• External influences added to the combustible mix
  • Regional conflicts, such as the Arab-Israeli conflict and the rise of Arab nationalism, spilled over into Lebanon
  • Interference by foreign powers, including Syria, Israel, and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), further destabilized the country

Internal and external actor influence

• Lebanese factions played a central role in the conflict
  • Maronite Christian militias, such as the Lebanese Forces and Phalange, sought to maintain their political dominance
  • Muslim and leftist militias, including the Progressive Socialist Party and Amal Movement, fought for greater representation and social justice
  • Palestinian armed groups, notably the PLO, used Lebanon as a base for operations against Israel, drawing the country into the Arab-Israeli conflict
• Regional actors shaped the course of the war
  • Syria intervened militarily in 1976 to support the Maronites but later shifted alliances to maintain its influence in Lebanon
  • Israel supported Maronite militias to counter Palestinian and Syrian presence, invading Lebanon in 1978 (Operation Litani) and 1982 (Operation Peace for Galilee)
• International actors also played a significant role
  • The United States provided military support to the Lebanese government and Maronite militias but withdrew after the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing killed 241 American service members
  • Iran supported Shia militias, particularly Hezbollah, following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, adding a new dimension to the conflict
  • The Arab League attempted to mediate several ceasefires and peace agreements but was ultimately unsuccessful in bringing an end to the fighting

Impact and Resolution of the Lebanese Civil War

Civil war impact on Lebanon

• Political fragmentation weakened state institutions
  • The central government lost control as sectarian-based militias and warlords became the primary power brokers
  • This led to a breakdown in the rule of law and a rise in corruption and patronage networks
• Social disruption tore at the fabric of society
  • Nearly a third of the population was displaced by the fighting, creating a massive humanitarian crisis
  • Sectarian segregation intensified as communities sought safety among their own, leading to the rise of confessional identity over national unity
  • Social cohesion and trust broke down, making post-war reconciliation a daunting challenge
• Economic devastation set Lebanon back decades
  • Infrastructure was destroyed, and the economy collapsed, with GDP falling by an estimated 50% during the war
  • Beirut's status as a regional financial and commercial hub declined, as businesses fled and tourism evaporated
  • Brain drain and capital flight further eroded Lebanon's human and financial resources, hampering post-war recovery efforts
• Geopolitical implications extended beyond Lebanon's borders
  • Increased Syrian and Israeli involvement in Lebanese affairs undermined the country's sovereignty and independence
  • The emergence of Hezbollah as a powerful military and political force, backed by Iran, altered the regional balance of power
  • The civil war had spillover effects on regional stability, particularly in relation to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the rise of sectarian tensions in the Middle East

Taif Agreement effectiveness

• Achievements of the Taif Agreement
  • Ended the civil war in 1989 after 15 years of devastating conflict, bringing a measure of peace to Lebanon
  • Restored a degree of political stability and national unity by reaffirming the power-sharing arrangement between Muslims and Christians
  • Paved the way for the disarmament of militias and the reconstruction of the country's shattered infrastructure
• Limitations of the agreement
  • Failed to address the root causes of the conflict, such as sectarianism, socio-economic inequalities, and foreign interference
  • Perpetuated the confessional system, which divided power along religious lines, entrenching sectarian divisions and hindering the development of a cohesive national identity
  • Allowed for continued foreign influence in Lebanese affairs, particularly from Syria, which maintained a military presence in the country until 2005
• Political reforms introduced by the Taif Agreement
  • Established equal representation of Muslims and Christians in parliament, with seats evenly divided between the two groups
  • Transferred some presidential powers to the Council of Ministers, headed by the Prime Minister, to create a more balanced executive branch
  • Called for the gradual abolition of political sectarianism, although this provision has not been fully implemented
• Challenges in the post-Taif era
  • Continued political deadlock and institutional paralysis, as the confessional system has made consensus-building difficult
  • The rise of Hezbollah as a state within a state, with its own military capabilities and social services, has challenged the authority of the central government
  • Ongoing tensions with Israel, including the 2006 Lebanon War, and the impact of the Syrian conflict have tested Lebanon's stability and sovereignty