9.4 Movement decline, success, and failure

Social movements don't last forever. They can fizzle out due to internal conflicts, external pressure, or simply running out of steam. But even "failed" movements can leave a lasting impact, shifting public opinion or inspiring future activists.

Success isn't just about policy changes. Movements can empower marginalized groups, create enduring organizations, and transform cultural norms. Their legacy often lives on long after the protests end, shaping society in subtle but profound ways.

Factors of Social Movement Decline

Loss of Momentum and Internal Divisions

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• Social movements can decline due to a loss of momentum or enthusiasm among participants often caused by a lack of visible progress or achievements
• Movements may experience internal divisions or conflicts over goals, strategies, or leadership leading to fragmentation and a weakening of the movement (Civil Rights Movement in the late 1960s)
• Generational shifts or changes in the demographic composition of the movement can alter its character and priorities over time
• The co-optation of movement leaders or the incorporation of movement demands into mainstream institutions can demobilize the grassroots base (Labor Movement in the early 20th century)

External Opposition and Contextual Changes

• External opposition, such as counter-movements, government repression, or negative media coverage, can undermine the legitimacy and support for a movement (Anti-Apartheid Movement in South Africa faced government repression)
• Changes in the social, political, or economic context that initially gave rise to the movement can reduce its relevance or urgency (Occupy Wall Street Movement declined as the economy improved)
• The achievement of some or all of the movement's goals can lead to a sense of completion and a reduction in participant motivation (Women's Suffrage Movement after the 19th Amendment)

Assessing Social Movement Success

Policy Changes and Public Opinion Shifts

• The achievement of specific policy goals or legislative changes is a common measure of movement success, although the scope and durability of these changes can vary (Civil Rights Act of 1964)
• Shifts in public opinion, cultural norms, or societal values in alignment with the movement's aims can indicate a broader impact beyond policy (LGBTQ+ Movement and changing attitudes towards same-sex marriage)
• The ability to shape the public agenda, media discourse, or political priorities can reflect a movement's power to set the terms of debate (Environmental Movement and the global climate change conversation)

Empowerment and Organizational Capacity

• The mobilization and empowerment of previously marginalized or excluded groups can be a significant outcome, even if formal goals are not fully realized (Black Lives Matter Movement)
• The creation of enduring organizations, networks, or coalitions that continue to advocate for the movement's causes can provide a basis for long-term influence (National Organization for Women)
• The personal and collective transformations experienced by participants, such as a heightened sense of agency, identity, or political consciousness, can be a form of success (Feminist Movement and women's empowerment)
• The diffusion of movement tactics, frames, or ideas to other contexts or struggles can signify a wider resonance and impact (Nonviolent resistance tactics used in various movements)

Long-Term Impact of Social Movements

Lasting Legacies and Cultural Changes

• Movements can leave a lasting legacy in the form of legal precedents, institutional reforms, or policy frameworks that shape future developments (Roe v. Wade and abortion rights)
• The cultural and ideological changes promoted by movements can become embedded in societal norms, values, and practices, even if the movements themselves fade (Civil Rights Movement and racial equality)
• The memory and symbolism of movements can inspire and inform subsequent struggles, providing models, cautionary tales, or sources of legitimacy (Stonewall Riots and the LGBTQ+ Movement)

Political Realignment and Unintended Consequences

• Movements can alter the political landscape by realigning coalitions, reshaping party platforms, or introducing new cleavages and identities (Tea Party Movement and the Republican Party)
• The social and organizational infrastructure created by movements, such as networks, tactics, and leadership pipelines, can be mobilized for other causes (Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee and the Anti-War Movement)
• Movements can generate long-term effects on individual participants, shaping their life trajectories, political engagement, and sense of efficacy (Women's Movement and female political candidates)
• The unintended or indirect consequences of movements, such as backlash, counter-mobilization, or policy drift, can shape the context for future collective action (Prohibition Movement and organized crime)

Lessons from Social Movements

Effective Strategies and Tactics

• Successful movements often have clear and compelling goals, frames, and narratives that resonate with a broad audience and motivate sustained participation (March on Washington and "I Have a Dream" speech)
• Building diverse and inclusive coalitions, while maintaining a coherent collective identity, can enhance a movement's resilience and impact (Rainbow Coalition in the 1980s)
• Effective leadership, whether centralized or decentralized, is crucial for strategic decision-making, resource mobilization, and conflict management (Mahatma Gandhi and the Indian Independence Movement)
• Flexible and adaptive tactics, combining disruptive and persuasive actions, can help movements navigate changing contexts and overcome opposition (ACT UP and the AIDS crisis)

Sustaining Movements and Learning from Failure

• Sustained organizing and movement-building, beyond moments of peak mobilization, are necessary for achieving long-term goals and withstanding setbacks (United Farm Workers and the Delano Grape Strike)
• Successful movements often cultivate allies and leverage institutional access, while maintaining grassroots autonomy and pressure (Solidarity Movement in Poland)
• Failed movements may offer cautionary lessons about the risks of co-optation, internal division, strategic rigidity, or the neglect of movement-building and leadership development (Occupy Wall Street Movement)
• Both successful and failed movements underscore the importance of timing, context, and contingency in shaping the outcomes of collective action (Arab Spring and the varying outcomes across countries)