11.1 Origins and escalation of the Syrian conflict

Syria's civil war erupted from a perfect storm of factors. Authoritarian rule, economic grievances, and the Arab Spring's influence sparked protests. The government's violent response and refusal to reform escalated tensions, leading to full-scale conflict.

The Assad regime's actions worsened the situation. Militarizing the conflict, exploiting sectarian divisions, and receiving international support prolonged the war. Opposition groups emerged with diverse objectives, further complicating the conflict's dynamics.

Factors Leading to the Syrian Civil War and Its Escalation

Factors in Syrian civil war outbreak

Top images from around the web for Factors in Syrian civil war outbreak

• 

  File:Syrian Civil War.svg - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Syrian civil war - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  2012–2013 escalation of the Syrian civil war - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  File:Syrian Civil War.svg - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Syrian civil war - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

1 of 3

Top images from around the web for Factors in Syrian civil war outbreak

• 

  File:Syrian Civil War.svg - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Syrian civil war - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  2012–2013 escalation of the Syrian civil war - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  File:Syrian Civil War.svg - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Syrian civil war - Wikipedia View original

  Is this image relevant?

1 of 3

• Authoritarian rule under the Assad regime
  • Lack of political freedoms and democratic representation such as free elections and multi-party system
  • Repression of dissent and opposition movements through censorship, surveillance, and arbitrary arrests
• Economic grievances and social inequality
  • High unemployment rates, especially among youth (estimated at 30% in 2011)
  • Uneven distribution of wealth and resources favoring the ruling elite and urban centers
  • Corruption and nepotism within the ruling elite leading to public frustration and resentment
• Influence of the Arab Spring uprisings
  • Successful protests in Tunisia and Egypt inspiring Syrian activists to demand change
  • Demands for political reforms and regime change, echoing the slogans of "dignity" and "freedom"
• Drought and environmental stress
  • Severe drought from 2006 to 2010 leading to rural-urban migration and economic hardship
  • Increased pressure on urban infrastructure and services, exacerbating social tensions
• Government's violent response to initial protests
  • Security forces using excessive force against demonstrators, including live ammunition
  • Arrest and torture of activists and opposition figures, fueling anger and resistance

Assad regime's conflict escalation role

• Refusal to engage in meaningful political reforms
  • Cosmetic changes failing to address core demands of the opposition, such as lifting emergency law
  • Continued monopoly on power by the Assad family and loyalists, blocking genuine power-sharing
• Militarization of the conflict
  • Deployment of the Syrian Arab Army against protesters and opposition, escalating violence
  • Use of heavy weapons, including tanks and artillery, in civilian areas, causing widespread destruction
• Sectarian polarization
  • Assad regime portraying itself as the protector of minorities, particularly Alawites, to maintain support
  • Exploitation of sectarian divisions to mobilize support and demonize the opposition as Sunni extremists
• International support and intervention
  • Financial and military backing from Russia and Iran bolstering the regime's capacity to wage war
  • Diplomatic cover provided by Russia and China at the United Nations Security Council, blocking international action

Opposition groups and objectives

• Peaceful activists and civil society organizations
  • Demanding political reforms, democracy, and human rights, inspired by the Arab Spring
  • Organizing protests, strikes, and campaigns of civil disobedience to pressure the regime
• Syrian National Council (SNC)
  • Umbrella group formed in 2011 to coordinate opposition efforts and present a united front
  • Seeking international support and recognition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people
• Free Syrian Army (FSA)
  • Formed by defected Syrian military officers and soldiers who refused to fire on protesters
  • Aiming to protect civilians and fight against regime forces, gradually gaining strength and territory
• Islamist and jihadist groups
  • Emergence of organizations such as Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State (IS) as the conflict progressed
  • Seeking to establish an Islamic state based on their interpretation of Sharia law, attracting foreign fighters

Sectarian divisions in Syrian conflict

• Historical context of sectarian tensions
  • Alawite minority rule over a Sunni majority population since the 1970 coup by Hafez al-Assad
  • Legacy of the Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the 1970s and 1980s, brutally suppressed by the regime
• Polarization and mistrust between communities
  • Regime's portrayal of the opposition as Sunni extremists, stoking fears among minorities
  • Opposition's perception of the regime as an Alawite-dominated dictatorship, oppressing the Sunni majority
• Sectarian violence and targeted attacks
  • Reports of sectarian killings and forced displacement, particularly in mixed areas (Homs, Hama)
  • Heightened fears and revenge attacks among different communities, deepening the divide
• External actors exploiting sectarian fault lines
  • Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran supporting opposing sides based on sectarian affiliations
  • Influx of foreign fighters motivated by sectarian ideologies, framing the conflict as a Sunni-Shia battle