🐪Contemporary Middle East Politics Unit 11 – Syrian Civil War & ISIS Emergence

Historical Context

• Syria gained independence from France in 1946 and experienced a period of political instability marked by coups and military rule
• The Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party seized power in 1963, establishing a one-party state and implementing socialist economic policies
  • Hafez al-Assad, a member of the Alawite minority, became president in 1971 and ruled until his death in 2000
• Bashar al-Assad, Hafez's son, succeeded his father as president in 2000 and initially promised political and economic reforms
  • However, these reforms were largely cosmetic, and the regime continued to suppress political dissent and maintain tight control over the country
• Syria's ethnic and religious diversity, with a Sunni Muslim majority and significant Alawite, Christian, and Kurdish minorities, contributed to underlying tensions
• The country faced economic challenges, including high unemployment, corruption, and a growing wealth gap, which fueled public discontent
• The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings across the Middle East inspired protests against the Assad regime, which quickly escalated into a full-scale civil war

Key Players and Factions

• Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government, supported by the Syrian Arab Army and various pro-government militias
  • Backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia militant group
• Syrian opposition groups, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and various rebel factions
  • Supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni-majority countries in the region
• Kurdish forces, primarily the People's Protection Units (YPG), which sought to establish an autonomous region in northern Syria
  • Received support from the United States in the fight against ISIS
• Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a jihadist group that emerged from the chaos of the civil war and seized large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq
• Al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, which later rebranded itself as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
• International actors, including the United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and various Arab states, which intervened in the conflict to protect their interests and support their allies

Causes of the Syrian Civil War

• Long-standing political repression and lack of democratic freedoms under the Assad regime
• Economic grievances, including high unemployment, corruption, and a growing wealth gap
• The regime's violent crackdown on peaceful protests during the 2011 Arab Spring, which galvanized opposition and led to an armed uprising
• Sectarian tensions between the Sunni majority and the Alawite-led government, which were exacerbated by the conflict
• Proxy wars and competing geopolitical interests of regional and international powers, which fueled the conflict and prolonged its duration
• The fragmentation of the opposition, with numerous rebel groups pursuing different agendas and often fighting among themselves
• The rise of extremist groups, such as ISIS and Al-Nusra Front, which exploited the chaos and power vacuum created by the civil war

Timeline of Major Events

• March 2011: Peaceful protests begin in Syria, inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings
• April 2011: The Assad regime launches a violent crackdown on protesters, leading to an escalation of the conflict
• July 2011: Defected soldiers form the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to fight against the government
• 2012-2013: The conflict spreads throughout the country, with rebel groups making significant gains against government forces
  • Chemical weapons attacks in Damascus suburbs in August 2013, which the international community attributed to the Assad regime
• 2014: ISIS seizes large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq, declaring a "caliphate" and attracting foreign fighters
• September 2015: Russia intervenes militarily in support of the Assad regime, launching airstrikes against rebel groups
• 2016-2017: Government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, regain control of key cities, including Aleppo and Palmyra
• April 2017: The United States launches missile strikes against a Syrian airbase in response to a chemical weapons attack in Khan Shaykhun
• 2018-2019: The Syrian government continues to make territorial gains, while Turkey launches operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria
• March 2019: The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) declare victory over ISIS, after capturing its last stronghold in Baghouz
• 2020-2021: Despite a relative reduction in violence, the conflict remains unresolved, with the Assad regime consolidating its control and the humanitarian crisis persisting

Rise and Expansion of ISIS

• ISIS emerged from the remnants of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and exploited the power vacuum created by the Syrian civil war
• The group seized control of large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq in 2014, declaring a "caliphate" and imposing its strict interpretation of Islamic law
  • Key cities captured by ISIS included Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq
• ISIS attracted thousands of foreign fighters from around the world, using sophisticated propaganda and social media campaigns
• The group's rapid expansion and brutal tactics, including mass executions, torture, and sexual slavery, shocked the international community
• ISIS also claimed responsibility for numerous terrorist attacks in Europe, North Africa, and other regions, further raising its global profile
• The U.S.-led international coalition launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq, while supporting local forces on the ground
  • The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led alliance, played a key role in the fight against ISIS in Syria
• By 2019, ISIS had lost nearly all of its territorial control in Syria and Iraq, following sustained military pressure from the international coalition and local forces
  • However, the group continues to maintain a presence as an insurgency and carries out sporadic attacks in the region

International Involvement

• The Syrian civil war quickly became a proxy conflict, with regional and international powers supporting different factions to protect their interests
• Russia and Iran provided crucial military and financial support to the Assad regime, helping it to regain lost territory and consolidate its control
  • Russia launched airstrikes against rebel groups and deployed military advisors on the ground
  • Iran sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and supported Shia militias, such as Hezbollah, to fight alongside government forces
• The United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni-majority countries supported various rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA)
  • The U.S. provided training, weapons, and financial assistance to vetted rebel factions, focusing on the fight against ISIS
  • Turkey's involvement was driven by its concerns over Kurdish autonomy and the presence of Syrian refugees on its border
• The international community also sought to address the use of chemical weapons in the conflict, with the U.S. and its allies launching limited strikes against Syrian government targets in response to chemical attacks
• Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, including the Geneva peace talks and the Astana process, have largely failed to produce a lasting political solution
• The competing interests and interventions of external actors have contributed to the complexity and prolongation of the Syrian civil war

Humanitarian Crisis

• The Syrian civil war has resulted in one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history, with millions of people displaced and in need of assistance
• As of 2021, over 6.6 million Syrians have been internally displaced, while more than 5.6 million have fled the country as refugees
  • The vast majority of Syrian refugees are hosted by neighboring countries, such as Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, placing a significant strain on their resources and infrastructure
• The conflict has caused widespread destruction of homes, schools, hospitals, and other critical infrastructure, leaving many Syrians without access to basic services
• Civilians have been subjected to indiscriminate attacks, sieges, and starvation tactics by various parties to the conflict
  • The use of barrel bombs, chemical weapons, and other prohibited weapons has caused immense suffering and loss of life
• Humanitarian organizations have faced significant challenges in delivering aid to those in need, due to access restrictions, insecurity, and funding shortfalls
• The international community has responded with aid efforts and pledging conferences, but the scale of the crisis continues to outpace the available resources
• The long-term impact of the conflict, including the trauma, loss of education, and economic devastation, will likely affect Syrian society for generations to come

Impact on Regional Politics

• The Syrian civil war has had far-reaching consequences for the political landscape of the Middle East, exacerbating regional tensions and reshaping alliances
• The conflict has deepened the Sunni-Shia divide, with Iran and Shia militias supporting the Assad regime, while Sunni-majority countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have backed the opposition
• The rise of ISIS and its cross-border activities have posed a significant security threat to neighboring countries, prompting military interventions and increased counterterrorism cooperation
• The Kurdish question has gained prominence, with the Syrian Kurds' pursuit of autonomy and their alliance with the U.S. in the fight against ISIS straining relations with Turkey
• The influx of Syrian refugees into neighboring countries has strained their resources and infrastructure, leading to increased social and political tensions
  • In Lebanon, for example, the presence of over 1 million Syrian refugees has exacerbated existing sectarian divisions and economic challenges
• The conflict has also highlighted the competing interests and interventions of regional powers, such as Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, as they seek to expand their influence and protect their security interests
• The Syrian civil war has contributed to a broader sense of instability and uncertainty in the region, with the potential to fuel further conflicts and political upheaval in the years to come