14.4 Domestic challenges and their impact on Turkey's regional role

Turkey faces a complex web of domestic challenges that impact its regional ambitions. Political polarization, economic instability, and social tensions strain the country's resources and institutions. These issues shape Turkey's domestic and foreign policies, influencing its relationships with neighbors and global powers.

The Kurdish conflict and refugee crisis further complicate Turkey's situation. These long-standing issues affect internal stability and regional dynamics, shaping Turkey's military actions and diplomatic strategies. The aftermath of the 2016 coup attempt has led to significant changes in governance and civil liberties.

Domestic Challenges in Turkey

Domestic political, economic, and social challenges facing Turkey

Top images from around the web for Domestic political, economic, and social challenges facing Turkey

• 

  EU’s solution to ‘refugee crisis’ involves outsourcing responsibilities : Peoples Dispatch View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Christians in Syria Struggle to Survive amid Terrors - Morningstar News View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Les flux migratoires View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  EU’s solution to ‘refugee crisis’ involves outsourcing responsibilities : Peoples Dispatch View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Christians in Syria Struggle to Survive amid Terrors - Morningstar News View original

  Is this image relevant?

1 of 3

Top images from around the web for Domestic political, economic, and social challenges facing Turkey

• 

  EU’s solution to ‘refugee crisis’ involves outsourcing responsibilities : Peoples Dispatch View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Christians in Syria Struggle to Survive amid Terrors - Morningstar News View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Les flux migratoires View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  EU’s solution to ‘refugee crisis’ involves outsourcing responsibilities : Peoples Dispatch View original

  Is this image relevant?

• 

  Christians in Syria Struggle to Survive amid Terrors - Morningstar News View original

  Is this image relevant?

1 of 3

• Political challenges
  • Increasing authoritarianism under President Erdoğan concentrates power in the executive branch
  • Erosion of democratic institutions and checks and balances weakens separation of powers and rule of law (free press, independent judiciary)
  • Polarization between secular and religious segments of society fuels social tensions and political divisions (Kemalists vs. Islamists)
• Economic challenges
  • High inflation rates erode purchasing power and living standards (reached 85.5% in October 2022)
  • Currency depreciation makes imports more expensive and increases foreign debt burden (Turkish lira lost over 40% of its value against the US dollar in 2021)
  • High unemployment, particularly among youth, leads to social unrest and brain drain (youth unemployment rate of 20.1% in 2021)
  • Widening income inequality exacerbates social tensions and poverty (Gini coefficient of 41.9 in 2019)
• Social challenges
  • Refugee crisis, with millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, strains public services and creates social tensions (3.6 million Syrian refugees as of 2021)
  • Ethnic tensions, particularly with the Kurdish minority, fuel separatist movements and armed conflicts (PKK insurgency)
  • Gender inequality and violence against women persist despite legal reforms (474 femicides in 2019)
  • Brain drain, as educated professionals seek opportunities abroad, weakens human capital and innovation (113,326 Turkish citizens emigrated in 2019)

Kurdish conflict and refugee crisis

• Kurdish conflict
  • Long-standing conflict between the Turkish government and Kurdish separatists, primarily the PKK, seeks greater autonomy or independence for Kurds
  • Renewed violence since the breakdown of peace talks in 2015 has led to thousands of casualties and displacement (over 4,000 deaths since 2015)
  • Cross-border military operations in Syria and Iraq, targeting Kurdish forces, aim to prevent establishment of a Kurdish state (Operations Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and Peace Spring)
  • Strained relations with Western allies due to Turkey's actions against Kurds complicate cooperation on regional security issues (tensions with US over support for Syrian Kurdish YPG)
• Refugee crisis
  • Turkey hosts the largest refugee population worldwide, with over 3.6 million Syrian refugees, placing a significant burden on resources and infrastructure
  • Strain on public services and infrastructure, such as healthcare, education, and housing, leads to overcrowding and reduced quality (1.74 million Syrian refugees are under 18)
  • Social tensions between refugees and host communities, fueled by competition for jobs and resources, lead to discrimination and violence (rising anti-Syrian sentiment and attacks on refugees)
  • Leverage in negotiations with the European Union, using refugees as a bargaining chip, allows Turkey to extract financial and political concessions (2016 EU-Turkey refugee deal)

Consequences of 2016 coup attempt

• 2016 attempted coup
  • Failed military coup attempt on July 15, 2016, led by factions within the Turkish Armed Forces, aimed to overthrow President Erdoğan
  • Allegations of Gülen movement involvement, which the government labels as a terrorist organization, led to a massive purge of suspected Gülenists (over 160,000 people arrested or dismissed from their jobs)
• Government crackdown
  • Mass arrests and purges of suspected coup supporters in the military, judiciary, academia, and media aim to consolidate power and eliminate opposition (over 77,000 people arrested and 150,000 dismissed from their jobs)
  • Declaration of a state of emergency, allowing rule by decree, enables the government to bypass parliamentary oversight and due process (state of emergency lasted for two years)
  • Closure of numerous media outlets, NGOs, and educational institutions stifles free speech and civil society (over 180 media outlets shut down and 1,500 NGOs closed)
• Impact on civil liberties
  • Deterioration of freedom of expression and press freedom, with journalists and critics facing arrest and censorship (Turkey ranked 153rd out of 180 countries in the 2021 World Press Freedom Index)
  • Increased government control over the judiciary undermines the rule of law and fair trials (over 4,000 judges and prosecutors dismissed)
  • Suppression of opposition parties and civil society organizations weakens political pluralism and democratic participation (HDP leaders arrested and party faces closure case)

Implications for regional ambitions

• Regional ambitions
  • Aspiration to be a leading power in the Middle East and Muslim world drives assertive foreign policy and military interventions (Neo-Ottomanism)
  • Neo-Ottoman foreign policy, seeking to expand Turkish influence in former Ottoman territories, leads to involvement in regional conflicts and rivalries (Syria, Libya, Eastern Mediterranean)
  • Involvement in conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh aims to project power and protect Turkish interests (support for Syrian opposition, GNA in Libya, and Azerbaijan)
• International standing
  • Strained relations with the United States and European Union due to democratic backsliding and human rights concerns lead to sanctions and diplomatic tensions (US sanctions over S-400 purchase and human rights issues)
  • Shifting alliances, such as closer ties with Russia and Iran, reflect a more independent and pragmatic foreign policy (Astana process on Syria, TurkStream pipeline)
  • Potential economic repercussions, such as sanctions or reduced foreign investment, could undermine Turkey's growth and stability (EU threat to suspend customs union and halt accession talks)
  • Damage to Turkey's soft power and reputation as a model of a Muslim-majority democracy weakens its appeal and influence in the region (declining support for Turkish model in Arab world after 2013 Gezi Park protests and 2016 coup attempt)