3.2 Heuristics and Biases in Social Judgment

Social judgments often rely on mental shortcuts called heuristics. These cognitive tools help us navigate complex information quickly but can lead to biases. Understanding these shortcuts reveals how we make decisions and form impressions in social situations.

Biases in attribution and judgment shape how we explain behavior and evaluate events. These tendencies, like the fundamental attribution error and hindsight bias, influence our interactions and perceptions. Recognizing these biases helps us make more accurate social judgments.

Cognitive Heuristics

Mental Shortcuts in Decision Making

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• Availability heuristic judges likelihood of events based on ease of recall
  • Overestimates probability of vivid or recent events
  • Leads to biased risk assessments (plane crashes vs. car accidents)
• Representativeness heuristic evaluates similarity to prototypes or stereotypes
  • Ignores base rates and sample sizes
  • Results in conjunction fallacy (Linda problem)
• Anchoring and adjustment uses initial value as reference point
  • Insufficient adjustment from arbitrary starting points
  • Affects negotiations and numerical estimations
• Framing effect influences decisions based on how options are presented
  • Loss vs. gain framing alters risk preferences
  • Impacts medical decision-making and consumer choices

Cognitive Shortcuts in Practice

• Availability heuristic shapes public perception of crime rates
  • Media coverage influences perceived frequency of violent crimes
  • Distorts policy priorities and personal safety measures
• Representativeness heuristic affects hiring decisions
  • Candidates judged based on similarity to job stereotypes
  • Overlooks qualified individuals who don't fit the "typical" profile
• Anchoring occurs in salary negotiations
  • Initial offer serves as anchor for subsequent counteroffers
  • Can lead to suboptimal outcomes for both parties
• Framing influences marketing strategies
  • "90% fat-free" vs. "10% fat" product descriptions
  • Alters consumer perceptions and purchasing behavior

Attribution Biases

Explaining Behavior: Self vs. Others

• Fundamental attribution error overemphasizes personality and underestimates situational factors
  • Attributes others' actions to internal characteristics
  • Neglects environmental influences on behavior
• Actor-observer bias differentiates between explanations for own vs. others' actions
  • Individuals attribute their own behavior to external factors
  • Attribute others' behavior to internal dispositions
• Self-serving bias protects self-esteem through biased attributions
  • Takes credit for successes (internal attribution)
  • Blames external factors for failures

Impact of Attribution Biases on Social Interactions

• Fundamental attribution error affects workplace dynamics
  • Managers may overlook situational constraints on employee performance
  • Leads to unfair evaluations and strained relationships
• Actor-observer bias influences conflict resolution
  • Each party views their actions as justified by circumstances
  • Hinders empathy and mutual understanding
• Self-serving bias impacts team dynamics and leadership
  • Team members may overestimate their contributions
  • Leaders may fail to recognize areas for improvement

Judgment Biases

Distortions in Evaluation and Prediction

• Hindsight bias creates illusion of predictability after events occur
  • "I knew it all along" effect
  • Distorts memory of past predictions
• Overconfidence effect leads to excessive faith in judgments and abilities
  • Overestimation of knowledge and skill
  • Underestimation of task difficulty and risks
• Illusory correlation perceives relationships between unrelated variables
  • Reinforces stereotypes and prejudices
  • Leads to false causal inferences

Consequences of Biased Judgments

• Hindsight bias affects legal proceedings and historical analysis
  • Jurors may unfairly judge defendants' past decisions
  • Historians may oversimplify complex historical events
• Overconfidence influences financial decision-making
  • Investors may underestimate market risks
  • Entrepreneurs may overlook potential business challenges
• Illusory correlation impacts medical diagnoses and social policies
  • Doctors may misattribute symptoms to unrelated factors
  • Policymakers may implement ineffective interventions based on perceived correlations